SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$232Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, questioning the solicitor general, says she does not see how President Trump’s claim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of America” does not show discriminatory intent.
Chief Justice Roberts, in questioning the solicitor general, says the administration’s victory in the 2018 case regarding President Trump’s ban on travel from several predominantly Muslim countries does not equate to a guaranteed win for the administration here.
In Birthright Case, Trump’s Likely Loss May Not End the Fight
On birthright citizenship, Trump's restrictive immigration agenda hits a rare roadblock • •
Constitution is on Trump’s side in Supreme Court birthright citizenship case
Prior to this hearing, some legal experts predicted a major defeat for Trump. After all, lower court judges had decisively rejected his executive order, deeming it clearly unconstitutional. One judge stated that in his 40-year judicial career, he had never seen a case with such a clear and unambiguous outcome. However, the Supreme Court justices seemed to disagree that the case was so simplistic.
*SUPREME COURT SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP'S BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CURBS ...
*SUPREME COURT SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP'S BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CURBS
Where does the news lean?
11YES8NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.