Russia nuclear test
Open6as of
Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 6% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Commentary
by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs M.V. Zakharova on the 30th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (#CTBT) (September 24, 2026) September 24 marks 30 years since the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (#CTBT). This date is a good opportunity to assess the situation surrounding the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Despite the fact that the Treaty has been ratified by 179 states out of 188 that have signed it, the prospects for the CTBT's entry into force are equally dim. This is due to the position of a number of states, primarily the United States, which was one of the initiators of the Treaty but, nevertheless, has not taken effective measures to ratify it over the past decades. Statements by the US leadership that the relevant bill will not pass Congress do not stand up to criticism. We note how quickly regulations are adopted on Capitol Hill that are of vital interest to the American political establishment. What is coming out of Washington recently is particularly alarming. The instruction of the US President D. Trump of October 29, 2025 on the beginning of preparations for nuclear tests is not just words, but in fact a direct threat to the corresponding moratorium, which keeps the world from sliding into a new round of the nuclear arms race. Attempts by the Americans to accuse other countries of actions allegedly incompatible with the Treaty appear absolutely groundless. As is known, when such statements are heard from Washington, it means that the Americans once again intend to abandon their international obligations. The Russian Federation was the first of the nuclear "five" states to join the CTBT - on the day it opened for signature on September 24, 1996. For more than 20 years, we maintained this status even in conditions when Washington did not move an inch towards ratifying the Treaty. But this could not go on forever. In 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification, restoring the balance with the United States in international legal obligations in this area. Russia remains a party to the CTBT with all the rights and obligations that follow. We continue to work responsibly in the Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization. In December 2023, we completed construction of our own, the second-largest in the world, national segment of the International Monitoring System - 32 facilities are certified and operational. The Russian Federation continues to observe its voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing, introduced by the USSR in 1990. On November 5, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin unequivocally stated:
"Russia has always strictly adhered to and continues to adhere to its obligations under the CTBT, and we have no plans to deviate from them. However, if the United States or other States Parties to the Treaty conduct full-scale nuclear tests, then Russia will also have to take appropriate retaliatory measures.”
We strictly follow this approach.
Commentary by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson M.V. Zakharova on the 30th Anniversary of the Opening for Signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (September 24, 2026) September 24 marks the 30th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (#CTBT). This date is a good opportunity to assess the situation surrounding the CTBT. Despite the fact that 179 of the 188 signatory states have ratified the Treaty, the prospects for the CTBT's entry into force are still unclear. The reason for this is the position of a number of states, primarily the United States, which was one of the initiators of the Treaty, but, nevertheless, over the past decades has not taken effective measures to ratify it. Claims by US leaders that the relevant bill will not pass Congress do not stand up to scrutiny. We note how quickly regulations are passed on Capitol Hill that the American political establishment has a vested interest in. What has been coming out of Washington recently is particularly alarming. US President Donald Trump's order of October 29, 2025, to begin preparations for nuclear tests is not just words, but a direct threat to the corresponding moratorium, which prevents the world from sliding into a new round of the nuclear arms race. Attempts by the Americans to accuse other countries of actions allegedly incompatible with the Treaty appear completely groundless. As we know, when such statements come from Washington, it means that the Americans once again intend to abandon their international obligations. The Russian Federation was the first of the nuclear "five" states to join the CTBT - on the day it opened for signature on September 24, 1996. For more than 20 years, we maintained this status even when Washington did not move an inch towards ratifying the Treaty. But this could not continue forever. In 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification, restoring the balance with the United States in international legal obligations in this area. Russia remains a party to the CTBT with all the rights and obligations that follow. We continue to work responsibly in the Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization. In December 2023, we completed construction of our own, the second-largest national segment of the International Monitoring System in the world – 32 facilities are certified and operational. The Russian Federation continues to observe its voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing, introduced by the USSR in 1990. On November 5, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin unequivocally stated: “Russia has always strictly adhered to and continues to adhere to its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and we have no plans to deviate from them. Nevertheless, if the United States or other states party to the Treaty conduct full-scale nuclear tests, then Russia will also be required to take appropriate and adequate retaliatory actions.” We strictly adhere to this approach.
After Russia's recent test... why this international race to develop ballistic missiles?
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.