Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Open23as of
Market pricing makes Eduardo Paes the favorite at 95% across 23 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Eduardo Paes95%
Candidate H50%
Candidate I50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate J50%
Other50%
Candidate F50%
Rafa Luz1%
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Lula led a campaign event in Rio de Janeiro to consolidate his broad coalition ahead of the 2026 elections. He was accompanied by gubernatorial candidate Eduardo Paes. #teleSUR #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #LatinAmerica
What is this event about?
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).