Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? the favorite at 23%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NOtheguardian.com94%match79¢-3%
Live: Pete Hegseth , the former Fox News weekend host now overseeing the US quagmire in Iran as Donald Trump ’s “central casting” defense secretary, has denied that h
NOwar.gov96%match76¢+1%
Secretary of War Hegseth Reaffirms the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, Calls on Regional Partners to Take Fight to the Cartels. • Secretary of War Pete Hegseth traveled to Panama this week to lead the second Americas Counter Cartel Coalition Forum in his role as chairman, participate in the Panamax 2026 military exercise in defense of the Panama Canal and host bilateral engagements with key leaders in the Western Hemisphere.
NOnbcnews.com92%match77¢
Live: ‘Smart guy’: Trump says he stands by Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
NOnbcnews.com92%match77¢
‘Smart guy’: Trump says he stands by Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
NOAsharq93%match78¢-1%
Trump: I am very pleased with the performance of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
NOWalter Bloomberg95%match75¢+3%
TRUMP REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR HEGSETH • • President Trump dismissed reports questioning Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, calling them "completely false" and reaffirming his full confidence. • • He praised Hegseth's leadership, citing stronger military recruitment, the removal of DEI initiatives, and recent U.S. operations involving Venezuela and Iran as successes. • • Trump also accused The Washington Post of spreading false reports and described its coverage as "treasonous."
NOThe Hill Reporter93%match79¢-3%
.@maggieNYT tells @ezraklein Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is a "die-hard Trumper. Not MAGA — Trumper. And so that buys you a lot of cachet internally"
YESRussian Media92%match24¢-4%
Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth's handling of the operation against Iran, CBS News reports, citing sources. He believes Mr. Hegseth's actions led to the United States missing an opportunity to avoid a protracted conflict by rejecting Iran's offer to limit its nuclear program. According to the publication's sources, the Pentagon chief insisted on confrontation with Iran, despite the objections of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
NOnytimes.com99%match64¢+20%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is speaking at a congressional hearing in Washington and was asked about the Trump administration’s plans to withdraw U.S.
NOReuters Reporter99%match56¢+38%
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attends a House Armed Services Committee hearing on the Department of Defense's FY27 budget request on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 29, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
YESIran Semi-Official SNN99%match42¢-45%
Spanish newspaper El Pais: The dismissal of the Navy Secretary due to a disagreement with Heggest has ignited new unrest in the Pentagon Many senior military and civilian officials in the Pentagon have expressed concern about the move, seeing it as a sign of the military becoming too politicized and the weakening of the chain of command. Critics believe that firing experienced officials for opposing the Secretary of War's approaches could jeopardize the combat readiness and internal cohesion of the US armed forces at a critical time. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
YESIranian Media98%match42¢-45%
Spanish newspaper El País: The dismissal of the Navy Secretary due to a disagreement with Heggest has ignited new unrest in the Pentagon Many senior military and civilian officials in the Pentagon have expressed concern about this move, seeing it as a sign of excessive politicization of the military and a weakening of the chain of command. Critics believe that firing experienced officials for opposing the Secretary of War's approaches could jeopardize the combat readiness and internal cohesion of the US armed forces at a critical time. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
YESIranian Media98%match42¢-45%
Spanish newspaper El País: The dismissal of the Navy Secretary due to a disagreement with Heggest has ignited new unrest in the Pentagon Many senior military and civilian officials in the Pentagon have expressed concern about this move, seeing it as a sign of excessive politicization of the military and a weakening of the chain of command. Critics believe that firing experienced officials for opposing the Secretary of War's approaches could jeopardize the combat readiness and internal cohesion of the US armed forces at a critical time. @iribnews
YESalaidi99%match40¢-42%
Hegseth doesn't know how many generals were fired and cannot utter the reason why they were fired. •

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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