Okinawa Governor Election Winner

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This hub tracks 34 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (4 more):

Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Genta Kojanewsdig.tbs.co.jp92%match97¢+3%
[Full Interview] "You have made the choice to move Okinawa forward": Statement by Genta Koja, newly elected Governor of Okinawa Prefecture, immediately after his victory.
Genta Kojayomiuri.co.jp95%match98¢+2%
Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term, said in a quiet venue, "I will accept this fully"... Genta Koja wins first term as governor of Okinawa Prefecture.
Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term, said in a quiet venue, "I will accept this fully"... Genta Koja wins first term as governor of Okinawa Prefecture.
Genta Kojanews.ntv.co.jp96%match98¢+2%
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win.
Genta Kojayomiuri.co.jp91%match100¢
National Democratic Party Secretary-General Shinba: "This is a reflection of the expectations of the people of Okinawa"... Newcomer Genta Koja, whom they endorsed, is now certain to win the Okinawa gubernatorial election.
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Newcomer and former Naha City Deputy Mayor, Genta Koja, wins first term.
Genta Kojanikkei96%match90¢+11%
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Genta Koja's First Victory Confirmed, Defeating 5 Candidates Including the Incumbent
Genta Kojanikkei.com97%match90¢+11%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Genta Koja's first victory is certain, defeating the incumbent and five other candidates.
Genta Kojanewsdig.tbs.co.jp95%match90¢+11%
[Breaking News] Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Newcomer Genta Koja's victory is certain.
Genta Kojasankei.com98%match90¢+11%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Conservative newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win his first term, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki and others.
Denny Tamakisankei.com97%match89¢+12%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Conservative newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win his first term, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki and others.
Genta Kojayomiuri.co.jp98%match90¢+11%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term, and others.
Denny Tamakiyomiuri.co.jp97%match89¢+12%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term, and others.
Genta Kojaasahi.com94%match83¢+20%
Who is Genta Koja, the newly elected Governor of Okinawa Prefecture? He has dreamed of becoming governor since he was a university student.
Genta KojaNews97%match83¢+20%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win, endorsed by six parties including the Liberal Democratic Party, beating incumbent Denny Tamaki and others (20:00)
Denny TamakiNews96%match82¢+22%
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Newcomer Genta Koja is projected to win, endorsed by six parties including the Liberal Democratic Party, beating incumbent Denny Tamaki and others (20:00)
Genta Kojaasahi.com96%match83¢+20%
Genta Koja wins first term as governor of Okinawa Prefecture; he supports the Henoko base construction and is the first person born after the return of Okinawa to Japan.
Genta Kojanewsdig.tbs.co.jp98%match83¢+20%
[Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election] Genta Koja is projected to win, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term.
[Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election] Genta Koja is projected to win, defeating incumbent Denny Tamaki, who was seeking a third term.
Mikio Shimojisankei.com94%match98¢+2%
"There will be no return to the party," says Mikio Shimoji, who has withdrawn from the Okinawa gubernatorial election, and is supporting Koja, who is endorsed by the LDP and others.
Mikio Shimojinikkei.com97%match98¢+2%
In the Okinawa gubernatorial election, Mikio Shimoji, who withdrew his candidacy, said he would "support Koja," and the Liberal Democratic Party endorsed him.
[Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election] Mikio Shimoji holds emergency press conference to explain the circumstances of withdrawing his candidacy.
Okinawa gubernatorial election to be officially announced tomorrow; last-minute withdrawal of candidate Mikio Shimoji leaves the race "effectively a two-way contest"
Genta Kojanikkei98%match27¢+270%
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Mikio Shimoji Announces Withdrawal from Candidacy, Reaches Policy Agreement with LDP The election is expected to be a de facto two-way race between incumbent Denny Tamaki and former Naha City Deputy Mayor Genta Koja. Shimoji's withdrawal will unite the conservative camp, which is expected to give Koja a boost.
Denny Tamakinikkei98%match35¢+186%
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Mikio Shimoji Announces Withdrawal from Candidacy, Reaches Policy Agreement with LDP The election is expected to be a de facto two-way race between incumbent Denny Tamaki and former Naha City Deputy Mayor Genta Koja. Shimoji's withdrawal will unite the conservative camp, which is expected to give Koja a boost.
Mikio Shimojinikkei98%match99¢+1%
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Mikio Shimoji Announces Withdrawal from Candidacy, Reaches Policy Agreement with LDP The election is expected to be a de facto two-way race between incumbent Denny Tamaki and former Naha City Deputy Mayor Genta Koja. Shimoji's withdrawal will unite the conservative camp, which is expected to give Koja a boost.
Mikio Shimoji announces he will not run in the Okinawa gubernatorial election; signs policy agreement with Liberal Democratic Party.
Denny Tamakinewsdig.tbs.co.jp97%match66¢-100%
With Mikio Shimoji's withdrawal, the Okinawa gubernatorial election will become a "Liberal Democratic Party vs. Okinawan People's Party" contest, according to Denny Tamaki's camp.
With Mikio Shimoji's withdrawal, the Okinawa gubernatorial election will become a "Liberal Democratic Party vs. Okinawan People's Party" contest, according to Denny Tamaki's camp.
[Shocking news just two days before the official announcement] Prime Minister Takaichi says "do everything you can" after Mikio Shimoji withdraws from the Okinawa gubernatorial election; Tamaki and Koja effectively become a two-way race.

What is this event about?

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).