Okinawa Governor Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Candidate A the favorite at 50% across 34 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate H50%
Candidate I50%
Candidate J50%
Candidate K50%
Candidate L50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate Q50%
Candidate R50%
Candidate S50%
Candidate T50%
Candidate U50%
Candidate V50%
Candidate W50%
Candidate X50%
Candidate Y50%
All further outcomes (4 more):
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
"There will be no return to the party," says Mikio Shimoji, who has withdrawn from the Okinawa gubernatorial election, and is supporting Koja, who is endorsed by the LDP and others.
In the Okinawa gubernatorial election, Mikio Shimoji, who withdrew his candidacy, said he would "support Koja," and the Liberal Democratic Party endorsed him.
[Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election] Mikio Shimoji holds emergency press conference to explain the circumstances of withdrawing his candidacy.
Okinawa gubernatorial election to be officially announced tomorrow; last-minute withdrawal of candidate Mikio Shimoji leaves the race "effectively a two-way contest"
Okinawa Prefectural Governor Election: Mikio Shimoji Announces Withdrawal from Candidacy, Reaches Policy Agreement with LDP The election is expected to be a de facto two-way race between incumbent Denny Tamaki and former Naha City Deputy Mayor Genta Koja. Shimoji's withdrawal will unite the conservative camp, which is expected to give Koja a boost.
Mikio Shimoji announces he will not run in the Okinawa gubernatorial election; signs policy agreement with Liberal Democratic Party.
With Mikio Shimoji's withdrawal, the Okinawa gubernatorial election will become a "Liberal Democratic Party vs. Okinawan People's Party" contest, according to Denny Tamaki's camp.
[Shocking news just two days before the official announcement] Prime Minister Takaichi says "do everything you can" after Mikio Shimoji withdraws from the Okinawa gubernatorial election; Tamaki and Koja effectively become a two-way race.
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Mikio Shimoji suddenly announces he will not run, citing a "policy agreement with the Liberal Democratic Party."
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Mikio Shimoji announces withdrawal of candidacy; has reached policy agreement with Liberal Democratic Party.
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Will Mikio Shimoji's withdrawal from the race give a boost to conservative newcomers? Concerns also arise that it may give the impression of a "deal" with the Liberal Democratic Party.
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Mikio Shimoji announces withdrawal of candidacy.
Okinawa gubernatorial election to be officially announced tomorrow; incumbent and former Naha deputy mayor are the main contenders; Mikio Shimoji withdraws his candidacy.
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Mikio Shimoji announces withdrawal from candidacy, citing "policy agreement with the Liberal Democratic Party."
Okinawa gubernatorial election: Mikio Shimoji announces withdrawal of candidacy; still has some support from conservatives.
★ Mikio Shimoji announces withdrawal from Okinawa gubernatorial election
[Breaking News] Mikio Shimoji withdraws his candidacy for Okinawa Governor election, announces on his social media.
Former House of Representatives member Mikio Shimoji announced on social media that he does not intend to run in the Okinawa gubernatorial election.
What is this event about?
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).