Nicolás Maduro released from custody

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 7% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

December 31alarabiya92%match93¢
US prosecutors have set June 2027 as the tentative date for the start of Maduro's trial in New York on drug trafficking charges.
December 31Iranian Media93%match92¢+1%
Maduro's trial postponed until next year Yesterday, a court in the United States set June 1, 2027 (11 Khordad 1406) as the date for the trial of kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. @iribnews
Maduro's trial date set Yesterday, a court in the United States set June 1, 2027 (11 Khordad 1406) as the date for the trial of kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. tasnimnews.ir/3654450 @TasnimNews [in reply to: Maduro's illegal trial begins in US court Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appeared in a US court under heavy security to answer trumped-up drug trafficking charges in what many observers consider an "illegal show trial." @TasnimNews]
December 31alarabytv91%match92¢+1%
US court sets June 2027 as trial date for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife
Maduro's trial has a date Judge Hellerstein scheduled the trial against President Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores for June 2027 in New York, while protesters demanded their release outside the courthouse. Will the defense succeed in getting the case dismissed?
December 31afp94%match92¢+1%
Venezuela's ousted president Nicolas Maduro and his wife will go on trial in the United States in June 2027, a court ruled Wednesday, after the US military captured them in a stunning nighttime raid in January. •
December 31chosun.com94%match92¢+1%
Maduro's Fate to Be Decided by Mid-Next Year, Court: “Starts June 1, 2027”
December 31telegraph.co.uk92%match92¢+1%
Maduro to remain behind bars for one more year while awaiting trial
From kidnapping to show trials in the US; Maduro's trial postponed until next year The case of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has entered a new phase after Washington's attack to kidnap and transfer him to US soil; a New York federal judge announced on Wednesday that the former Venezuelan president, and his wife, Cilia Flores, will be tried on June 1, 2027 (11 Khordad 1406). @IRNA_1313
December 31Sky News Arabia93%match92¢+1%
A US court sets June 1, 2027 as the date for the start of Maduro's trial.
December 31lefigaro.fr92%match92¢+1%
United States: Nicolas Maduro's trial set for June 1, 2027
December 31Reuters93%match92¢+1%
U.S. Judge Sets June 1, 2027 Trial Start Date for Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
December 31CNN Reporter93%match92¢+1%
Federal prosecutors and lawyers for Nicolas Maduro are seeking a June 2027 trial for the ousted leader and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, according to a Justice Department filing Tuesday —CNN.
December 31Iranian Media93%match92¢+1%
Maduro to be tried in June 2027 The US Department of Justice has proposed that the trial of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro begin in June 2027. isna.ir/xdWLS2 @isna94
December 31NBC Reporter94%match92¢+1%
Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Department of Justice are jointly proposing a trial date of June 2027 in federal court in New York. • • We expect Judge Hellerstein to determine a trial date at a hearing tomorrow.
JUST IN: Prosecutors and Nicolas Maduro’s lawyers seek a June 2027 trial date
December 31Axios98%match74¢+26%
What the U.S. used to capture Maduro
January 9Axios98%match100¢
What the U.S. used to capture Maduro
January 9The Wall Street Journal98%match100¢
Breaking: Nicolás Maduro makes his first appearance in a Manhattan courtroom after being captured by American forces
December 31CGTN America99%match19¢-63%
“Court case” for Maduro begins.
January 31CGTN America99%match98¢+2%
“Court case” for Maduro begins.
January 9Bloomberg99%match100¢
Nicolás Maduro will have already spent more than 24 hours in one of the toughest US jails when he appears in court Monday to face charges that could keep him behind bars for the rest of his life
January 31Bloomberg99%match97¢+3%
Nicolás Maduro will have already spent more than 24 hours in one of the toughest US jails when he appears in court Monday to face charges that could keep him behind bars for the rest of his life
December 31Polymarket99%match86¢+8%
BREAKING: Maduro projected to be sentenced to 60+ years in prison, but there's still a 14% chance he gets away with no prison time.
December 31Breaking91199%match86¢+8%
Looks like Nicolás Maduro will be released from prison any second now
January 9Breaking91199%match1¢-100%
Looks like Nicolás Maduro will be released from prison any second now
January 31Breaking91199%match98¢+2%
Looks like Nicolás Maduro will be released from prison any second now
December 31Breaking91199%match86¢+8%
The libs are demanding Maduro be freed
December 31The Spectator Index99%match14¢-50%
BREAKING: Maduro in detention
January 9The Spectator Index99%match0¢
BREAKING: Maduro in detention

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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