Next Mythos-Class Model released
Open10as of
Market pricing makes October 31 the favorite at 97% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
October 3197%
September 3092%
September 1580%
September 975%
September 774%
September 469%
September 255%
September 145%
August 3131%
July 310%
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
noreply@statuspage.io - Claude Incident - Degraded performance for Claude Mythos 5, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Opus 5 - 5 August 2026
What is this event about?
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.