Next leader out of power before 2027?
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This hub tracks 23 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro looks to be heading to trial in an American court after his capture in a US military operation that leaves open the future direction and leadership of his oil-rich nation.
CNN outlines three possible scenarios for Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. Delta Force 1. Constitutional transition Power would formally pass to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who, under the constitution, would be required to organize new elections…
President Nicolás Maduro approaches his last act as Venezuela’s autocratic leader
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro looks to be heading to trial in an American court after his capture in a US military operation that leaves open the future direction and leadership of his oil-rich nation
President Nicolás Maduro approaches his last act as Venezuela’s autocratic leader
Keir Starmer’s rivals on the left of the Labour Party have long voiced their disquiet about his leadership. Yet at the start of 2026, the UK prime minister’s right flank may pose the more imminent threat
Japan PM joins fight for more female toilets in parliament
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK would turn a corner in 2026 and life would get easier for Britons, as he braces for a rocky political year ahead that could include a leadership challenge
Brazil’s president has no serious challengers from the centre or the left. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is so good at retail politics that all plausible rivals are keeping their heads down and their mouths shut
President Emmanuel Macron said he would work to protect France’s 2027 election from outside influence just weeks after the US pledged to “cultivate resistance” within Europe to the continent’s current path.
France's President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday he would stay until the "last second" of his second term after a year of domestic political turmoil
With the UK economy stagnant and Labour tanking in the polls, it’s safe to say 2025 hasn’t gone to plan for Prime Minister Keir Starmer
Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Germans to ignore “scaremongers and doomsayers” and trust in the country’s ability to overcome its numerous challenges, including mounting Russian aggression and geopolitical upheaval
Argentina's Congress approves 2026 budget, first under Milei
Argentina’s Senate approved President Javier Milei’s budget bill for 2026, cementing a legislative victory that overcame renewed tensions between the libertarian leader and his top ally.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he is naming Elma Saiz as government spokesperson
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support ratings are holding steady at historically high levels, despite the fallout from a dispute with China over comments she made on Taiwan last month
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez suffered a large defeat in a regional election in Extremadura, in his party’s first test since being hit by a major sexual misconduct scandal.
Japan's Takaichi government maintains 75% approval rating
France will build new aircraft carrier, Macron tells troops
A string of sexual misconduct scandals within Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s party is alienating the very group of voters he can’t afford to lose: women.
Brazil's Lula vows to veto bill cutting Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence
Some local elections due to take place across England next year may be delayed in a move that could limit the losses faced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s governing Labour Party
US President Trump will outline his 2026 agenda in a White House speech amid declining approval ratings and rising global tensions. Follow our LIVE coverage:
Brazil President Lula urged the EU to finalize a massive trade agreement with South American nations, telling still-hesitant leaders that the deal won’t happen on his watch if it doesn’t get done now.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to appoint a veteran diplomat as his new ambassador to Washington after opting against a candidate with a business background.
BRAZIL PRESIDENT LULA: IF WE DO NOT FINALIZE EU-MERCOSUR DEAL RIGHT NOW, BRAZIL WILL NOT SIGN IT ‘AS LONG AS I AM PRESIDENT’
BRAZIL'S LULA: IF WE DO NOT FINALIZE EU-MERCOSUR DEAL RIGHT NOW, BRAZIL WILL NOT SIGN IT AS LONG AS I AM PRESIDENT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will attend a European Union leaders’ summit on Thursday in Brussels, as he tries to secure support for a loan backed by Russian assets
Russia is developing new weapons systems that won't be available to anyone else in the world anytime soon, Vladimir Putin has stated.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.