Netanyahu arrested
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 6% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
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4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Netanyahu announced that he has no intention of canceling his attendance at the United Nations General Assembly in September, despite repeated calls from New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani to detain him if he travels to the city.
BREAKING: Netanyahu confirms he's going to New York City. • • “First of all I’m going to New York... I'm going to speak the truth in front of this hate-spewing elected official." • • Israeli PM Netanyahu's attendance at the U.N. General Assembly in September was in question after NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani threatened to make good on the ICC's arrest warrant on the PM. • • "He’s pitting one group of New Yorkers against the others. He’s turning them against New York Jews. I mean what are we, in the 1930s? So much hate. So many lies”.
The mayor of New York is discussing with legal circles the possibility of issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu should he attend the UN meetings next September. Trump: He will not be arrested under any circumstances.
Suggests Mamdani will have his chance to arrest Netanyahu in September. Provisional list shows Israeli head of government will speak at UNGA in NY
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.