NATO dissolves before 2027?
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Market pricing makes NATO dissolves before 2027? the favorite at 3%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
New: • • "This is the worst place NATO has been since it was founded. It's really hard to think of anything that even comes close." • • Big take w/ the @Reuters team in DC, Brussels and Paris on what some dips call the darkest days in the alliance's history • •
NATO RIFT ESCALATES AS TRUMP CONSIDERS US WITHDRAWAL OVER HORMUZ STANDOFF
Q: Is there an appetite in the republican conference to pull the United States out of NATO? • THUNE: "I seriously doubt that." • Q: The President is talking a lot about this, the administration is very critical of NATO. What would your message be to them? I mean, because it would require congressional action... • THUNE: • "I'm sure we have some of our members who feel that way, but I know, I think that just knowing our conference and conversations we've had in the past about this, we got an awful lot of people who think that NATO is a very critical, incredibly successful post World War Two Alliance, and that, you know, and I think in the in the world today, you need allies. So my guess is that would be the view."
IISS Research Fellow Sascha Bruchmann explains whether NATO can realistically survive without the United States after President Trump’s withdrawal threat. • • #NATO #Trump @Leighanngerrans
A European official told Politico after Trump's remarks: NATO is already falling apart.
NATO turns 77 on Saturday. The alliance was established on April 4, 1949 with the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty by the 12 founding members.
Why Trump's broadsides against NATO are puzzling to its members
Former NATO official Nicholas Williams: President Trump doesn't like NATO and sees it as a drain on American resources; he probably wants to destroy the organization.
"NATO has never impressed me" – Trump threatens to withdraw from military alliance
Trump 'strongly considering' pulling US out of NATO
Trump ratchets up attacks on NATO, says U.S. no longer needs alliance
GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER WADEPHUL: IF THERE ARE SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC, THEY MUST BE DISCUSSED WITHIN THE NATO FRAMEWORK
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.