Montana Senate Election Winner
Open13as of
Market pricing makes Republican the favorite at 91% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
'I'll never bow down': Montana Democratic Senate nominee refuses to pave way for independent
Democrats may be headed to a split field in Montana that will hand Republican Alme the seat. • • Dem Alani Bankhead ahead of dropout deadline: “I am in this race to win it and I am staying though Nov. 3” • • Independent Seth Bodnar has also said he’s staying in
Republican in Montana’s Senate race gets a boost
Exclusive: Independent Seth Bodnar Weighing Exit from Montana Senate Race if Democrat Bankhead Refuses to Drop Out
Exclusive: Independent Seth Bodnar Weighing Exit from Montana Senate Race if Democrat Bankhead Refuses to Drop Out
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: Democrats closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November. >
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.