Montana Senate Election Winner
Open13as of
Market pricing makes Kurt Alme (R) the favorite at 92% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Montana Democratic Party chair steps down, endorses independent candidate
Montana Democratic Party chair resigns, endorses independent in Senate race Shannon O’Brien, chair of the Montana Democratic Party, on Monday announced her resignation and endorsed Montana independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar weeks ahead of the November midterm elections. O’Brien, who had served as the state party chair since 2025, wrote in an op-ed on MS NOW that “the Montana Democratic Party is more divided than…
Montana Dem Party chair resigns, endorses independent Bodnar in Senate race • •
Why I am resigning as Montana Democratic Party chair to endorse an independent Senate candidate
Republican Kurt Alme is in a strong position to win #MTSen. This group is trying to change that by boosting independent Seth Bodnar over Democrat Alani Bankhead as Alme's main challenger. • • But Alme is currently about a 9 in 10 favorite to win Montana in DDHQ's forecast.
#MTSEN: Former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock backs independent Seth Bodnar over Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead
New Montana Senate poll from Aspect Strategic, commissioned by Montana Freedom PAC, shows Democrat Bankhead cratering • • Alme (R) 44 • Bodnar (I) 32 • Bankhead (D) 14 • • Memo says messaging can help Bodnar consolidate support: "Bodnar’s strategic imperative is to consolidate the left while making targeted inroads on the right"
Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race
The Trump-linked super PAC No Going Back PAC is reserving ad time in #MTSEN, where Republican Kurt Alme faces Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, per @AdImpact_Pol. $1.9M placed so far.
Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton Senate poll: • Alme (R) 38 • Bodnar (I) 30 • Bankhead (D) 16 • Austin (L) 5 • •
Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton Senate poll: • Alme (R) 38 • Bodnar (I) 30 • Bankhead (D) 16 • Austin (L) 5 • •
'I'll never bow down': Montana Democratic Senate nominee refuses to pave way for independent
Democrats may be headed to a split field in Montana that will hand Republican Alme the seat. • • Dem Alani Bankhead ahead of dropout deadline: “I am in this race to win it and I am staying though Nov. 3” • • Independent Seth Bodnar has also said he’s staying in
Republican in Montana’s Senate race gets a boost
Exclusive: Independent Seth Bodnar Weighing Exit from Montana Senate Race if Democrat Bankhead Refuses to Drop Out
Exclusive: Independent Seth Bodnar Weighing Exit from Montana Senate Race if Democrat Bankhead Refuses to Drop Out
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: Democrats closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November. >
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.