MLB: ERA Leader
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This hub tracks 86 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Joe Ryan0%
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What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Miziowski wins two pitching titles, Yoshinobu Yamamoto ranks third in ERA, and Alonso wins two batting titles.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto left the game after giving up 4 runs in 6 innings, failing to secure his 15th win. He made a mistake immediately after a break in his pitching, and defensive errors prevented him from ending his regular season start with a victory.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: "I'll be in top condition for October" - Achieving his 14th win with indescribable pitching skills.
Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches 7 scoreless innings to earn his 14th win of the season, a new personal best.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto earns his 14th win, a new personal best in the majors! He pitched seven scoreless innings, and the Dodgers' winning streak brings their magic number down to "2". They could win their fifth consecutive division title tomorrow.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched seven scoreless innings, earning his career-high 14th major league win before leaving the game. He corrected his mistakes after walking the first two batters in the first inning, and delivered a superb performance allowing only one hit.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivered a masterful performance, allowing only one run in seven innings, and left the game with the chance to reach a career-high 13 wins in the majors. He struck out a career-high 10 batters in every inning, and his teammates' offense provided massive support with 11 runs.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives up two home runs and four runs in seven innings, but still qualifies for a career-high 13th major league win. He pitched well through five innings, holding the opponent hitless, and received run support from Freeman and Betts.
Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease has a no-hitter against the Yankees through six innings
Yoshinobu Yamamoto left the game with a chance to secure a career-high 13th win in the majors, receiving a standing ovation from the crowd for his excellent pitching performance of 2 runs allowed and 9 strikeouts through the middle of the 7th inning.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto earns his 12th win of the season, pitching 6 innings and allowing only 1 run. Munetaka Murakami hits his 27th home run, and Seiya Suzuki hits his 21st.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches 6 innings, allowing only one run, to earn his career-high 12th win in the majors, striking out 9 batters in every inning. Pages and Edman provide run support with home runs.
Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives up 3 runs in 8 innings but suffers his 7th loss; first time facing Yoshida in Major League Baseball.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched a strong game, allowing only 3 runs in 8 innings, but suffered his 7th loss of the season. Shohei Ohtani and Munetaka Murakami each managed only one hit.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto left the game after 8 innings, having given up 3 runs. He held Yoshida hitless in their first encounter, but gave up two home runs to Rafaela, and was not given much run support.
Christopher Sanchez's dominant home ERA makes Phillies run line the play against Yankees
Yoshinobu Yamamoto achieves a remarkable 100th career win in Japan and the US combined! He pitched well, allowing only one run in six innings, marking his 11th win of the season, and the Dodgers also extended their winning streak to four games. Shohei Ohtani, however, went hitless.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto leaves the game with a 3-run lead, aiming for his 100th career win in Japan and the US combined. He pitched well, allowing only one run in six innings, and is in line for his 11th win of the season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto shows his true strength in crucial moments, delivering an ace-like pitching performance to achieve 10 wins for the second consecutive year.
Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches a complete game for his 10th win of the season, his second consecutive season with double-digit wins; Shohei Ohtani drives in 2 runs.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitches his first walk-free complete game of the season! Despite pitching earlier than scheduled, the bullpen was rested in the first game of a doubleheader, and Ohtani scores his 30th multi-hit game and adds an extra run with a full-speed sprint.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.