MLB: ERA Leader

OpenOutcomes86as of

Market pricing makes Max Fried the favorite at 4% across 86 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Max Fried4%
Tarik Skubal3%
Cristopher Sánchez3%
Nick Pivetta3%
Dylan Cease3%
Hunter Brown3%
Taj Bradley2%
Bryce Elder1%
Reynaldo López1%
Freddy Peralta1%
Chad Patrick1%
Seth Lugo1%
Eduardo Rodriguez1%
Matthew Boyd0%
Logan Webb0%
Joe Ryan0%
Merrill Kelly0%
Bryan Woo0%
Brayan Bello0%
Player A
Player D
Player I
Player J
Player O
Player R
Player W
Player AD
Player AF
Player AG
Player AN

All further outcomes (56 more):

Nolan McLean · Player H · Player K · Player Q · Player S · Player Z · Player AE · Player AH · Player AK · Player AL · Player AO · Player AR · Player AT · Player AU · Player AX · Other · Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Garrett Crochet · Gavin Williams · Carlos Rodón · Clay Holmes · Michael Wacha · Carmen Mlodzinski · Emerson Hancock · Player B · Player E · Player M · Player P · Player U · Player X · Player AB · Player AJ · Player AQ · Paul Skenes · Andrew Abbott · Jacob deGrom · José Soriano · Shohei Ohtani · Jeffrey Springs · Connelly Early · Player C · Player F · Player G · Player L · Player N · Player T · Player V · Player Y · Player AA · Player AC · Player AI · Player AM · Player AP · Player AV · Player AS · Player AW

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Dylan Ceaseapnews.com93%match3¢
Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease has a no-hitter against the Yankees through six innings
Cristopher Sánchezfoxnews.com92%match5¢-40%
Christopher Sanchez's dominant home ERA makes Phillies run line the play against Yankees

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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