Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 17% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

December 31Newswire99%match57¢-70%
57% chance Miguel Díaz-Canel removed from office this year. • •
June 30Venezuela State-Backed TV99%match52¢+92%
El presidente de #Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, recibió a una delegación de la Asamblea Internacional de los Pueblos #AIP, que se encuentra en la isla caribeña desarrollando una agenda motivada por la cooperación y la solidaridad. • •
March 31Venezuela State-Backed TV99%match90¢+11%
El presidente de #Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, recibió a una delegación de la Asamblea Internacional de los Pueblos #AIP, que se encuentra en la isla caribeña desarrollando una agenda motivada por la cooperación y la solidaridad. • •
December 31BBC News (World)99%match56¢-70%
Oil refinery ablaze in Cuba as fuel crisis deepens
December 31Al Jazeera English99%match56¢-70%
Fire at Havana oil refinery as Cuba’s fuel crisis deepens
December 31The Wall Street Journal99%match56¢-70%
The U.S. campaign to block Cuba’s oil imports is deepening a humanitarian crisis on the island, the United Nations said, as Mexico and other countries shipped food and emergency supplies.
December 31CNBC98%match55¢-69%
Cuba says international airlines can no longer refuel there as Trump turns up the pressure
December 31Reuters98%match57¢-70%
Cuba to protect essential services as US moves to cut off oil supply
December 31Reuters98%match58¢-71%
Cuba to protect essential services as US moves to cut off oil supply

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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