MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

OpenOutcomes19as of

Market pricing makes Dan Koh the favorite at 89% across 19 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Seth MoultonCNN Reporter94%match100¢
New Suffolk/Boston Globe poll of #MASEN Democratic primary: • • Ed Markey (i) 52 • Seth Moulton 38 • Undecided 9 • • (Aug. 13-16; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) • •
Dan KohAxios Reporter93%match75¢+19%
Dan Koh is out with a new ad in #MA06 that leads with his endorsements from Biden and Harris:
Seth MoultonCNN Reporter93%match100¢
Seth Moulton, who has positioned himself as a moderate in his time in House, is shifting to the left as he tries to defeat Ed Markey in primary: “What I'm saying is that we're both progressive,” Moulton said. • • And says of 80-year-old-Markey: “The reality is that if we win the United States Senate, it'll probably be by one vote. We've seen what's happened with Mitch McConnell. We've seen what's happened with Joe Biden. We've seen what's happened with Dianne Feinstein, we just can't afford as a party to lose the majority.” • • Markey whacks Moulton for his past votes and says: “This is the most energized I've ever been. I battle Trump every single day on every single issue.”
New ad from John Beccia, a Democrat running to succeed Rep. Seth Moulton in #MA06: "These days, it feels like someone is always trying to rip you off ... whether it's online scammers or corrupt politicians."
Seth MoultonCNN Reporter92%match100¢
#MASEN Democratic primary: Seth Moulton outraised Ed Markey in the second quarter, $1.4 million to $1 million, per the latest FEC filings. • • Moulton has $2.6M cash on hand; Markey has $2.2 million.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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