MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner

ResolvedOutcomes8as of

This hub tracks 8 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Jake Auchincloss100%
Jason Poulos0%
Candidate A0%
Candidate B0%
Candidate C0%
Candidate D0%
Candidate E0%
Other0%

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Jake Auchinclossapnews.com98%match100¢
Jake Auchincloss wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District
Jake AuchinclossDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match100¢
Decision Desk HQ projects Jake Auchincloss wins the MA US House 4 Democratic Primary • • #DecisionMade: 8:40 PM EDT
Jake AuchinclossDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match100¢
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): Massachusetts US House 4 Democratic Primary • • Jake Auchincloss (D): 798 (74.6%) • Jason Poulos (D): 272 (25.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jason PoulosDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match100¢
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): Massachusetts US House 4 Democratic Primary • • Jake Auchincloss (D): 798 (74.6%) • Jason Poulos (D): 272 (25.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jake AuchinclossDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match100¢
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): Massachusetts US House 4 Democratic Primary • • Jake Auchincloss (D): 443 (70.2%) • Jason Poulos (D): 188 (29.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jason PoulosDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match100¢
DDHQ Race Update (est. 1% in): Massachusetts US House 4 Democratic Primary • • Jake Auchincloss (D): 443 (70.2%) • Jason Poulos (D): 188 (29.8%) • • Follow more results here: •

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.