Largest Company end of December 2026?
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Market pricing makes NVIDIA the favorite at 76% across 28 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Antropic projects $30 trillion market size… Surpasses SpaceX
$SPCX - HARVARD BETS $2.2B ON SPACEX • • Harvard Management disclosed a $2.2B stake in SpaceX (SPCX), making it over 50% of its $4.26B disclosed U.S. equity portfolio. • • The position includes roughly 12.94M shares, making SpaceX Harvard’s largest reported U.S. holding. • • Other major institutional holders include Intesa Sanpaolo (~$966M) and the University of California (~$1B). • • SpaceX shares remain above their $135 IPO price, valuing the company near $1.85T.
World's biggest wealth fund buys $1.2 billion of SpaceX stock. • Norway's $2.3 trillion pension fund revealed its first SpaceX stake, a cautious buyer backing the stock's price after months of volatility.
Will Antropic Surpass SpaceX?… “Corporate Value Projected at $2 Trillion”
Elon Musk once again stunned the world during SpaceX's first earnings call: 6-8 GW of new data centers will be added in 2027 alone, potentially well over 10 GW. It sounds impossible, but we believe it. We believe SpaceX is on track to reach approximately 10 GW by the end of 2027 and has the potential to achieve $300 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR). Why would anyone be willing to pay so much computing power? Inference is incredibly profitable. Our Tokenomics model and inference simulator show that OpenAI and Anthropic each sell API inference using GB300 clusters, generating over $100 billion in revenue per GW annually, while the leasing cost is only about $12 billion/GW/year. There's a third company that can replicate this economics: Microsoft. They gain full access to OpenAI models, without incurring training costs or taking a 20% revenue cut. In the past eight months, Microsoft has added 10GW of planned capacity! And the contract with SpaceX has a 90-day cancellation clause, making it relatively easy to sign. Can SpaceX really build it? Colossus 1's 300MW took only 122 days. The Southaven power plant grew from 27 turbines (approximately 495MW) in February to 69 turbines (1.7GW) in July. MiniHard is likely to reach 450-500MW in about five months. Speed is paramount. So where will the sites be built in 2027? SemiAnalysis has evaluated all suitable sites for SpaceX for its Datacenter Model subscribers, and SemiAnalysis' Energy Model also tracks the gas equipment supply from over 30 suppliers quarterly.
Nvidia is now almost $1 Trillion larger than every other public company • • Nvidia's $NVDA market cap has increased by more than $100 Billion so far in today's early trading
BofA: Nvidia's $500 Billion Funding
NVDA is bearing value, not debt:
NVDA has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with six top financial institutions (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital through an independent platform. The financial burden rests on the consortium's, not NVDA's, balance sheet.
GPUs as an Investable Asset Class:
With this $500 billion in capital treating computing power as an investable asset class, residual value must be maintained. NVDA provides cross-operator interchangeable and transferable computing power, while CUDA extends its lifespan, keeping resale/leasing rates high and depreciation curves moderate.
Extending the AI Development Runway:
Funding (not demand) has been the main bottleneck. This $500 billion funding pool allows non-investment-grade buyers (such as labs, emerging cloud service providers, and sovereign entities) to acquire hardware at attractive interest rates, reducing underwriting risk and supporting the long-term development path of the Total Accessible Market (TAM) for AI systems. Key Debates and Monitoring Risks: Notable concerns remain, including that memoranda of understanding are not necessarily deployed capital (requiring real end-users to pay real money), potential power and regulatory hurdles, inflationary input costs, and the opacity and complexity that the new financing structure may introduce to AI development.
Billionaire investor shorting SpaceX says one possible fix won't work. • Peter Andersen explains why he remains bearish on SpaceX and why a merger with Tesla would not solve business challenges.
SpaceX shares jumped 15.8% at the close of trading on Friday, reaching $133.11 and nearing their listing price of $135. The company's stock surge today brought its weekly gains to approximately 23%, adding more than $327 billion to its market capitalization during that period. The end of the lock-up period more than doubled the total number of shares available for trading to 1.55 billion shares, compared to 639 million shares at the time of listing. #Arabic_Business
SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It’s Real, Will Drive $500B ARR for SpaceX, • and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker • Inference at 100B/GW/year, • SpaceX's stellar pace, • Microsoft's 10GW 2026 Awakening, Azure Can Grow Tiple-Digits • •
Semi Analysis: SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It’s Real, Will Drive $500B ARR for SpaceX, and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker
Global IPO fundraising surges 206%! SpaceX sets record for largest IPO ever.
SpaceX stock plunges 14% at the close of trading, wiping out $225 billion in market value.
[ ZOOMER ] • • 18% CHANCE THAT TESLA AND SPACEX ANNOUNCE A MERGER THIS YEAR, AS SPACEX FALLS FOLLOWING FIRST EARNINGS CALL AND TESLA WEIGHS SALE OF ITS CHINA BUSINESS TO EASE POSSIBLE MERGER: POLYMARKET
18% Chance That Tesla And SpaceX Announce A Merger This Year, As SpaceX Falls Following First Earnings Call And Tesla Weighs Sale Of Its China Business To Ease Possible Merger
Source: Polymarket
Meta Platforms $META is back to having a larger market cap than SpaceX $SPCX
JP Morgan on SpaceX: • • "We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers. We recognize the upcoming lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6 of 911.5M shares, potentially increasing the current float of 639M shares by 143%, but we also believe there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months."
SpaceX surprises markets: Revenues soar, losses lower than expected, and Elon Musk forecasts $100 billion in revenue by the end of 2026. #MarketsOpening #ArabiaBusiness
On Tuesday, Musk outlined ambitious goals for SpaceX, including sending a data center into space by 2027 and achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO showed significant increases in both revenue and capital expenditures.
Musk reiterates expectation of $100 billion ARR by the end of this year (10x the June ARR), and now sees SpaceX seeing $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, and "non zero chance" of getting there in 2029. • • Some context: the average analyst estimate (30 of 39 sellside analysts are Buy on SPCX) for 2029 revenue is $208 billion
SpaceX Q2 Revenue Jumps 92% as Digital Asset Value Falls to $1.10 Billion • • SpaceX reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion. Connectivity revenue reached $4.29 billion as Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million. AI revenue surged 247% to $2.56 billion but generated an operating loss of $1.26 billion. Capital expenditure totaled $18.37 billion, of which $15.83 billion was attributable to the AI segment. • • At quarter-end, SpaceX’s digital assets had a carrying value of $1.10 billion, down approximately 33% from $1.64 billion at the end of 2025. The company had previously disclosed holding 18,712 BTC in its IPO filing. SpaceX also held approximately $100 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, while its contract backlog stood at $47.5 billion.
SpaceX CFO Sees $100 bln Annualized Revenue Run Rate by End of This Year
🇺🇸 Less than two months after a record-breaking IPO, SpaceX is set to publish its first quarterly results after markets close on Tuesday, as the share price of Elon Musk's rocket ship and AI company has lost around half its value since peaking in June. • âž¡ï¸�
Amazon surpasses a market capitalization of $3 trillion, becoming the fifth company in the world to do so; its stock price surges due to strong cloud performance.
Amazon Surpasses $3 Trillion Market Cap... 5th Largest Company in History
Amazon's market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, making it only the fifth company to reach this level. Shares of the e-commerce and cloud computing giant rose as much as 5.3% on Monday, extending the significant gains seen last week following the release of second-quarter earnings that showed accelerated cloud computing revenue. Amazon joins Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple as the only companies to have reached this size. #Arabic_Business
Since its first trade on June 12, SpaceX has lost over $500 billion in market cap, a stunning blow to retail investors who jumped into Elon Musk’s rocket company at their first opportunity. The stock is coming off its fourth straight weekly loss and is more than 50% off its intraday high. • • More details:
Nvidia Overtakes Apple to Reclaim World's Top Market Cap in Just 4 Days
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.