Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? the favorite at 15%, as of .
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Turkish and Israeli warships clash in the Mediterranean Sea Israel's Kan network reported, citing informed sources, that Turkish warships approached Israeli naval ships in the Mediterranean Sea and designated sea routes for them. Following this incident, the Israeli Navy has increased its level of readiness in the Mediterranean Sea to be ready for any possible developments. Further details about the exact location of the clash and when it occurred have not been released.
@Farsan - Link
Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel is not seeking to escalate tensions with Ankara, but will not accept any threats from Turkey or any other country. At the same time, media outlets reported, citing sources in Israel, that Azerbaijan is working behind the scenes to reduce tensions between Israel and Turkey. Meanwhile, the former head of the Mossad's counterterrorism department considered the possibility of a direct military conflict between Israel and Turkey to be almost zero, despite the existing tensions. Reported by Ashkan Safai, Iran International correspondent
Turkey & Israel On Brink Of Military Clash After Netanyahu Ordered Strikes On Syrian Airbase
Oded Eilam, the former head of the Mossad's counterterrorism division, sees the likelihood of a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel as "almost zero," and says a war with Israel could jeopardize Recep Tayyip Erdogan's long-standing plan to expand Turkey's influence in the Middle East and Africa. However, in the event of a military confrontation, Turkey has a larger army and greater capacity to mobilize forces. In contrast, Israel has the upper hand in areas such as air power, intelligence, missile defense, and nuclear capabilities.
Oded Eilam, the former head of the Mossad's counterterrorism division, considers the likelihood of a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel to be "almost zero," and says a war with Israel could jeopardize Recep Tayyip Erdogan's long-standing plan to expand Turkey's influence in the Middle East and Africa.
Mohammad Qaidi, a lecturer in international relations, said that one of Israel's main red lines in Syria is the deployment of defense systems or fighter jets that could limit the freedom of action of the Israeli air force in Syrian skies. He said that the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel is very low, but the tension between the two countries could turn into a "shadow war" in Syria, similar to the confrontation between the Islamic Republic and Israel in the country in previous years.
Türkiye and Israel on the brink of military confrontation: A strike in Syria sparks escalation and exposes a rift between Washington and Tel Aviv.
What is the likelihood of a war between Israel and Turkey over Syria? The restoration of the Syrian army and the supply of air defense systems to the neighboring country are tools for Turkish power projection. According to Ankara's plans, this also ensures the security of Turkey's southern borders, says Turkologist Yashar Niyazbayev. There is no likelihood of a direct military conflict between Turkey and Israel today, but Turkey will continue to provide assistance to Syria despite Israeli threats, Niyazbayev is confident. Neither Turkey nor Israel are interested in a direct military clash over Syria, agrees Lyudmila Samarskaya, a research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the IMEMO RAS. By conducting military operations in a neighboring country, the Israelis are demonstrating their reluctance to accept the expansion of Turkey's presence in Syria. "The Israeli leadership fears Turkey's growing regional influence, and preemptive strikes against neighboring countries fit into Israel's current military strategy, which also involves proactively preventing potential threats," the expert argues. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Israeli Channel 15, quoting Tom Barak: Israel's bombing of Abu al-Duhur airport portends a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey.
Israeli Channel 15, quoting Tom Barak: Israel's bombing of Abu al-Duhur airport portends a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey.
Tom Barak, Trump's envoy, to i24NEWS: We were one step away from a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel, they almost launched fighter jets "Yesterday's Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur military air base in Syria carried a real risk of rapid escalation to a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey, as well as Syria."
Trump's envoy to i24NEWS: We were one step away from a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel, they almost launched fighter jets US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barak, who also serves as US President Donald Trump's envoy to Syria, tells me that yesterday's Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur air base in Syria "carried a real risk of a rapid escalation into a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey, as well as Syria." "The Turkish forces did not know that Israeli planes were making their way to this specific Syrian base, and they did not know what their purpose was, and there was a concern that they were approaching Turkey, so they might have decided to launch their own fighter jets believing that they themselves were under attack," Barak said in an interview with i24NEWS. He added that "Yesterday's events were serious and worrying. "However, we are relieved that no lives were lost and that the situation did not escalate."
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: "There is no reason for there to be a conflict between Turkey and Israel" "Every time I hear this rhetoric from Israeli politicians, especially as they approach the upcoming elections, including from some opposition figures - I say thank God, there are still very sane people in Israel, good people with wisdom and strategic thinking, not all of them like Netanyahu and his people. But Netanyahu and some people, as they approach the elections, need an enemy. Because after waging war on Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, they need another enemy so that someone will pity them."
Smotrich announced readiness for conflict with Turkey The Israeli regime's finance minister took a stance on the possibility of a military conflict between the regime and Turkey. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Tensions with Turkey: It has now been confirmed that a Turkish naval vessel recently approached and interfered with an Israeli naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the Israeli vessels changed course @arik3000
Turkey's Yildirimhan ICBM; from proof of power to message to the Israeli regime.
Dr. H. A. Hellyer (@hahellyer) | Defense & Security Expert | Royal United Services Institute: • • Islamophobia & resistance to Türkiye's EU membership remain real obstacles - but even so, the drive is toward deeper security cooperation with Türkiye, not isolation. • • Israel's effort to frame Türkiye as an enemy is a fool's errand. Global public opinion has shifted. • • Israel faces a paradox - the Trump administration is arguably the most pro-Israel in living memory, but this may be the peak. • • Support among Democrat voters is at a historic low & trending further down. A similar erosion is visible among Republican voters though for a different reason. • • Israeli strategists should be rethinking their trajectory. So far, there is no evidence they are.
Erdogan: Israel is trying to reignite the war, but we are monitoring the situation with cautious optimism.
Interesting allegation by Ynet: • • “Israeli officials who favor rapprochement believe Israel should already be considering steps to repair relations with Turkey. • • One such official said it is a clear Israeli interest, adding that Turkish representatives had explored the possibility of reconciliation with Israel but were turned away.” • •
Turkey urges end to Israeli attacks 'before Lebanon collapses': minister
Opinion: With Iran’s proxies atrophying and the Trump administration providing lethal backing, Israel has shifted from defense to the region's central axis of stability. As the old guard weakens, even Erdogan is feeling the heat. •
Turkiye closely monitoring Israel’s regional manoeuvres in the Eastern Mediterranean as tensions widen.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.