ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026

ResolvedOutcomes10as of

This hub tracks 10 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

54.0–54.9100%
<51.00%
51.0–51.90%
52.0–52.90%
53.0–53.90%
55.0–55.90%
56.0–56.90%
57.0–57.90%
58.0–58.90%
59.0+0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

54.0–54.947news.jp96%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
<51.047news.jp97%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
52.0–52.947news.jp95%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
55.0–55.947news.jp95%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
56.0–56.947news.jp96%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
58.0–58.947news.jp95%match100¢
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
54.0–54.9ifre.com93%match100¢
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
<51.0ifre.com93%match100¢
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
53.0–53.9ifre.com91%match100¢
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
55.0–55.9ifre.com92%match100¢
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
56.0–56.9ifre.com92%match100¢
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
54.0–54.9livesquawk95%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
<51.0livesquawk94%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
51.0–51.9livesquawk94%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
53.0–53.9livesquawk94%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
55.0–55.9livesquawk94%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
56.0–56.9livesquawk94%match100¢
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
54.0–54.9News98%match100¢
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
53.0–53.9News97%match100¢
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
55.0–55.9News97%match99¢+1%
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
56.0–56.9News97%match100¢
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
58.0–58.9News97%match100¢
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
59.0+News97%match100¢
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
54.0–54.9News98%match100¢
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
52.0–52.9News98%match100¢
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
55.0–55.9News98%match99¢+1%
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
56.0–56.9News98%match100¢
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
57.0–57.9News98%match100¢
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
58.0–58.9News98%match100¢
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
54.0–54.9faststocknewss97%match100¢
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI 54.6 IN AUGUST, MISSES CONSENSUS • • - Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 vs 55.2 est, miss, from 55.6 in July • - Prices paid: 71.1 vs 70.5 est, above consensus, unchanged from July • - Employment: 51.2 vs 53.0 est, miss, from 52.8 • - New orders: 53.7, from 56.7 • - Supplier deliveries: 59.3, from 58.9, with readings above 50 indicating slower deliveries • • Growth slowing, input prices stuck. • • July's 55.6 was the highest reading since May 2022. Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a 25bp hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, per CME FedWatch.

What is this event about?

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.