ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 202655.0–55.9
ResolvedOutcome: No$25Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US ISM August Manufacturing Index: 54.6, below market expectations
US ECON - ISM Manufacturing PMI misses, dipping a point to 54.6
US ISM Manufacturing Aug: 54.6 (est 55.2; prev 55.6) • - Prices Paid: 71.1 (est 70.8; prev 71.1) • - New Orders: 53.7 (est 56.8; prev 56.7) • - Employment: 51.2 (est 52.5; prev 52.8)
NONews97%match99¢+1%
ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August: 54.6
NONews98%match99¢+1%
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was 54.6 (expected 55.2) - Reuters
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI 54.6 IN AUGUST, MISSES CONSENSUS • • - Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 vs 55.2 est, miss, from 55.6 in July • - Prices paid: 71.1 vs 70.5 est, above consensus, unchanged from July • - Employment: 51.2 vs 53.0 est, miss, from 52.8 • - New orders: 53.7, from 56.7 • - Supplier deliveries: 59.3, from 58.9, with readings above 50 indicating slower deliveries • • Growth slowing, input prices stuck. • • July's 55.6 was the highest reading since May 2022. Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a 25bp hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, per CME FedWatch.
ISM Mfg 54.6, Exp. 55.2, Last 55.6 • • Prices Paid 71.1, Exp. 70.8 • New Orders 53.7, Exp. 56.8 • Employment 51.2, Exp. 52.5
*US AUG. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 54.6; EST. 55.2
NONews94%match99¢+1%
*US AUG. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 54.6; EST. 55.2
NOdbnews95%match82¢+22%
*US AUG. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 54.6 VS 55.6; EST. 55.2
US Mfg PMI August Final 53.4, Exp. 53.9, Last 53.2
Where does the news lean?
0YES11NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Related markets
See all outcomes for ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.