Iran Nuke before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Iran Nuke before 2027? the favorite at 5%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
.@SecRubio on Iran: "For these people to ever get nuclear weapons would be crazy. Look what they're willing to do with the weapons they have now. They hit embassies, they target hotels... Imagine if these radical lunatics had a nuclear weapon to threaten the world with."
Rubio: Action against Iran was necessary because it was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.
NATO Secretary General: Our position is clear: we will not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.
NATO Secretary General: We have been clear that we will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.
NATO Secretary General: The alliance's position has been clear for some time that Iran must not possess a nuclear weapon.
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities
Iran says it won't negotiate over its missile capabilities
Iran has said its missile program are not for discussion or negotiation. per Reuters
Trump: Iran wants to make a deal. It would be foolish if they didn't.
Iran has told mediators again that its missile program remains non negotiable-JP
Iran says it could dilute enriched uranium if all sanctions are lifted, per Reuters
Iran insists on right to enrichment, ready for confidence-building
Iran insists on right to enrichment, ready for confidence-building
Whereas proliferation used to be the business mainly of rogue states like Iran and North Korea, the talk today is coming from democracies. We explain why
Iran is rapidly restoring missile launch sites and nuclear facilities destroyed or damaged in the 12 day war-NYT
Trump: Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly as they should.
[Replying to @DeItaone] @DeItaone 48% chance Iran agrees to a nuclear deal this year. > TRUMP: NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN
Iran is at work on missile and nuclear sites, satellite images show - NYT
He said Iran has reached an advanced stage in its nuclear program. “We have reached the edge of power in the nuclear field, and there is no unknown issue left for us,” he said.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".