Iran nuclear test before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Iran nuclear test before 2027? the favorite at 5%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ATTEMPTED TO REBUILD ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ATTEMPTED TO REBUILD ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM
RT @ZcohenCNN: Would almost certainly take Iran longer than 7 months to completely rebuild its nuclear program from scratch, as is being im…
VANCE: WE SEE EVIDENCE THAT IRAN IS TRYING TO REBUILD NUCLEAR WEAPON
VANCE: WE SEE EVIDENCE THAT IRAN IS TRYING TO REBUILD NUCLEAR WEAPON
VANCE: WE SEE EVIDENCE THAT IRAN IS TRYING TO REBUILD NUCLEAR WEAPON
Iran claims nuclear capabilities will be achieved in 24 hours.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.