How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
<25The Strait of Hormuz saw its traffic drop from around 11 vessels a day to 6 over the weekend, as reopening talks between the United States and Iran drag on. Trade intelligence company Kpler reported Monday that, from Friday to Sunday, a total of 32 ships passed through the strait — 17 of which used…92%match1¢-100%
Shipping traffic in Gulf of Hormuz falls to 6 vessels
Shipping data shows a decline in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic dropped to 6 ships yesterday, compared to a 10-day average of 11. Kpler recorded the entry of 4 ships and the exit of 2.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a minimum Maritime transport data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 6 ships yesterday. This is while the 10-day average of this figure was about 11 ships.
@Farsna - Link [in reply to: Trump's fantasy: The Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control On Monday evening, the US President claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been completely cleared of naval mines, but said that Iran can still cause problems. In response to questions from reporters in his office, Trump claimed: "We have a perfect blockade [against Iran]. They are bankrupt and they have no money." @FarsNewsInt - Link]
Wall Street Journal: Energy producers in the Persian Gulf are more than ever expecting Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to be sustainable Crude oil shipments through the waterway have fallen to about 2.2 million barrels per day in the past week, a far cry from the 20 million barrels that passed through the strait before the war Countries in the region are more willing than ever to accept Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for avoiding another conflict / Selection
Reporter: When will the Strait of Hormuz open? Trump's claim moments ago: "It's open right now." But the Marine Traffic report, a specialized media outlet related to maritime transport, says: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly in the past 2 days. Confirmed transits decreased from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and 6 on Sunday. 17 ships used the Iranian route and 10 ships used another route. Bab el-Mandeb was significantly busy with 116 confirmed transits during the same period.
Amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the sharp decline in ship traffic through the waterway, the US Central Command, CENTCOM, said it would continue its naval blockade of Iranian ports with more than 20 warships. Samira Qaraei, a correspondent for Iran International, reports on the latest developments regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Latest satellite images of the Strait of Hormuz Trump says, "The Strait of Hormuz is open and we control it," but maritime monitors say few ships are passing through Iran. Data from the maritime traffic tracking company Marine Traffic shows that passage through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly and the flow of passage through Iran is continuing; the company's satellite monitoring says that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday was 9 ships less than on Friday. Last night, images of flames were released near the Strait of Hormuz, which was said to be a vessel burning in the "shallow" area of Omani waters; Hours later, images showed that a ship that was about to enter the Strait of Hormuz with a US escort had been targeted. Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Weekend vessel traffic diverges • • Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weakened markedly over the weekend. Confirmed crossings fell from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and six on Sunday, with 32 vessels crossing between 7 and 9 August. Routing remained concentrated, including 17 movements through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 10 classified as Route Undetermined. • • Bab el-Mandeb remained significantly busier, with 116 confirmed crossings over the same period. Traffic held relatively steady at 43, 37 and 36 daily crossings, although 12 dark transits continued to highlight AIS visibility concerns. Saturday also recorded elevated risk activity, including 10 sanctioned crossings and eight dark transits.
Weekend vessel traffic diverges • • Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weakened markedly over the weekend. Confirmed crossings fell from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and six on Sunday, with 32 vessels crossing between 7 and 9 August. Routing remained concentrated, including 17 movements through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 10 classified as Route Undetermined. • • Bab el-Mandeb remained significantly busier, with 116 confirmed crossings over the same period. Traffic held relatively steady at 43, 37 and 36 daily crossings, although 12 dark transits continued to highlight AIS visibility concerns. Saturday also recorded elevated risk activity, including 10 sanctioned crossings and eight dark transits.
Weekend vessel traffic diverges • • Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weakened markedly over the weekend. Confirmed crossings fell from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and six on Sunday, with 32 vessels crossing between 7 and 9 August. Routing remained concentrated, including 17 movements through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 10 classified as Route Undetermined. • • Bab el-Mandeb remained significantly busier, with 116 confirmed crossings over the same period. Traffic held relatively steady at 43, 37 and 36 daily crossings, although 12 dark transits continued to highlight AIS visibility concerns. Saturday also recorded elevated risk activity, including 10 sanctioned crossings and eight dark transits.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.