How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

ResolvedOutcomes13as of

This hub tracks 13 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

54100%
550%
580%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn0%
530%
60+0%
570%
≤490%
500%
510%
520%
560%
590%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

55staunovo98%match100¢
Kevin Warsh Is Confirmed as Fed Chair in 54–45 Senate Vote • Divided vote signals challenge ahead for Warsh, who faces a Fed committee skeptical of rate cuts Trump has demanded
58staunovo98%match100¢
Kevin Warsh Is Confirmed as Fed Chair in 54–45 Senate Vote • Divided vote signals challenge ahead for Warsh, who faces a Fed committee skeptical of rate cuts Trump has demanded
56staunovo98%match100¢
Kevin Warsh Is Confirmed as Fed Chair in 54–45 Senate Vote • Divided vote signals challenge ahead for Warsh, who faces a Fed committee skeptical of rate cuts Trump has demanded
50washingtonpost.com99%match100¢
Tracking Trump: Senate rejects bill to end Iran war; Trump flies to China with CEOs; Senate confirms new Fed chair; and more
51washingtonpost.com99%match99¢+1%
Tracking Trump: Senate rejects bill to end Iran war; Trump flies to China with CEOs; Senate confirms new Fed chair; and more
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnwashingtonpost.com99%match99¢+1%
Senate confirms new Fed chair as Trump allies warn rate cuts may have to wait
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnwashingtonpost.com99%match99¢+1%
Senate to confirm new Fed chair as Trump allies warn rate cuts may be out this year
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnwhitehouse.gov99%match99¢+1%
Nominations Sent to the Senate
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnwhitehouse.gov99%match99¢+1%
Nominations Sent to the Senate 3857
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnzerohedge99%match99¢+1%
*WARSH NOMINATION TO FED CHAIR CLEARS SENATE PROCEDURAL VOTE
51zerohedge98%match3¢-100%
*WARSH NOMINATION TO FED CHAIR CLEARS SENATE PROCEDURAL VOTE
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnmarketnews_feed98%match99¢+1%
FED CHAIR NOMINEE WARSH CLEARS KEY PROCEDURAL HURDLE ON PATH TO SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE ...
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnmarketnews_feed98%match99¢+1%
FED CHAIR NOMINEE WARSH CLEARS KEY PROCEDURAL HURDLE AHEAD OF SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE ...
No vote by Dec 31/WithdrawnWalter Bloomberg99%match99¢+1%
FED CHAIR NOMINEE WARSH CLEARS KEY PROCEDURAL HURDLE ON PATH TO SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnfirstsquawk98%match99¢+1%
FED CHAIR NOMINEE WARSH CLEARS KEY PROCEDURAL HURDLE AHEAD OF SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawncgtneurope99%match99¢+1%
FED CHAIR NOMINEE WARSH CLEARS KEY PROCEDURAL HURDLE ON PATH TO SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawndbws.io98%match99¢+1%
Fed chair nominee Warsh clears hurdle on path to Senate confirmation
No vote by Dec 31/WithdrawnReuters99%match99¢+1%
Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Clears Key Procedural Hurdle on Path to Senate Confirmation Vote
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnabcnews.com98%match92¢+9%
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh advances to Senate confirmation vote
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawnnytimes.com98%match92¢+9%
The decision could clear the way for Trump’s nominee to replace Powell as Fed chair.
54foxbusiness.com99%match10¢+900%
GOP senator drops opposition to Trump Fed chair nomination after DOJ decision
53foxbusiness.com99%match11¢-100%
GOP senator drops opposition to Trump Fed chair nomination after DOJ decision
≤49foxbusiness.com99%match72¢+39%
GOP senator drops opposition to Trump Fed chair nomination after DOJ decision
51foxbusiness.com99%match72¢+39%
GOP senator drops opposition to Trump Fed chair nomination after DOJ decision
≤49cnn.com99%match73¢+37%
Thom Tillis agrees to move forward with Fed nomination
≤49nytimes.com99%match73¢+37%
Tillis Prepared to Advance Fed Nominee
54cgtneurope98%match94¢-100%
46 yeas, 51 nays
53cgtneurope98%match91¢+10%
46 yeas, 51 nays
≤49cgtneurope99%match25¢-100%
46 yeas, 51 nays
51cgtneurope99%match69¢+45%
46 yeas, 51 nays

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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