How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Open16as of
Market pricing makes 4 the favorite at 85% across 16 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanese towns kill nine people
Israel bombards Beirut, killing at least 7, the Lebanese health ministry said.
Israel announces it targeted 700 sites across Lebanon during a wide-ranging wave of airstrikes. More details from our correspondent Christine Rinawi:
Israel announces it targeted 700 sites across Lebanon during a wide-ranging wave of airstrikes. More details from our correspondent Christine Rinawi:
Israel announces it targeted 700 sites across Lebanon during a wide-ranging wave of airstrikes. More details from our correspondent Christine Rinawi:
Israel's Channel 12 reported that four people were killed in an airstrike on the office of an Islamic group in Beirut.
To the countries of the region: • • We are not at war with you. Our targets are the devil's bases in your countries used to launch attacks against us,and we will continue until they are driven out of the region and the ‘Greater Israel’ project is stopped. For your own sake, be wise.
To the countries of the region: • • We are not at war with you. Our targets are the devil's bases in your countries used to launch attacks against us,and we will continue until they are driven out of the region and the ‘Greater Israel’ project is stopped. For your own sake, be wise.
To the countries of the region: • • We are not at war with you. Our targets are the devil's bases in your countries used to launch attacks against us,and we will continue until they are driven out of the region and the ‘Greater Israel’ project is stopped. For your own sake, be wise.
Missile launches ongoing from iran towards Israel
Missile launches ongoing from iran towards Israel
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.