How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Open10as of
Market pricing makes Below 5.25% the favorite at 80% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Below 5.25%80%
Below 5.20%64%
Below 5.15%49%
Below 5.10%43%
Below 5.05%33%
Below 5.00%23%
Below 4.95%14%
Below 4.90%12%
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Cailian Press, October 8th - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note gave back 6 basis points of its intraday gains, falling from a high of 5.73% to 5.66%.
Cailian Press, October 8th - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note gave back 6 basis points of its intraday gains, falling from a high of 5.73% to 5.66%.
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 24-year high; bond selling pressure remains despite oil price falling below $90
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
US 30-year Treasury yields at 24-year high despite oil prices falling below $90, bond selling pressure persists.
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note reached its highest level since 2004, hitting 5.53%. The yield had been below 5% until early July. The 10-year Treasury note yield also reached a new multi-year high, surpassing 5.22%. #Arabic_Business
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note reached its highest level since 2004, hitting 5.53%. The yield had been below 5% until early July. The 10-year Treasury note yield also reached a new multi-year high, surpassing 5.22%. #Arabic_Business
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).