Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

OpenOutcomes75as of

Market pricing makes Sagal Abdi-Wali the favorite at 65% across 75 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Sagal Abdi-Wali65%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate H50%
Zack Polanski28%
Hamza Chowdhury4%
Sarah Hayward2%
Pat Callaghan0%
Adam Harrison0%
Richard Olszewski0%
Tricia Leman0%
Georgia Gould0%
Lorna Jane Russell0%
David Stansell0%
Jim Monahan0%
James White0%
Siân Berry0%
Charlie Clinton0%
Luisa Porritt0%
Keith Moffitt0%
Mehreen Malik0%
Gio Spinella0%
Oliver Cooper0%
David Roberts0%
Sarah Pochin0%
Andrew Feinstein0%

All further outcomes (45 more):

Candidate I · Candidate J · Candidate K · Candidate L · Candidate M · Candidate N · Candidate O · Candidate P · Candidate Q · Candidate R · Candidate S · Candidate T · Candidate U · Candidate V · Candidate W · Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Candidate AA · Candidate AB · Candidate AC · Candidate AD · Candidate AE · Candidate AF · Candidate AG · Candidate AH · Candidate AI · Candidate AJ · Candidate AK · Candidate AL · Candidate AM · Candidate AN · Candidate AO · Candidate AP · Candidate AQ · Candidate AR · Candidate AS · Candidate AT · Candidate AU · Candidate AV · Candidate AW · Candidate AX · Candidate AY · Candidate AZ · Other

What moved the odds?

A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.

What is this event about?

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).

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