Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

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45-50%100%
<30%0%
30-35%0%
35-40%0%
40-45%0%
50%+0%

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5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

40-45%Russian Media97%match98¢+2%
Somali-born Labour Party representative Sagal Abdi-Wali won a by-election in the British constituency of Holborn and St Pancras. She will replace former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the House of Commons, BBC News reports. Abdi-Wali received 12,292 votes (45%), ahead of Green Party leader Zack Polansky, who received 8,928 votes (33%). The Conservative candidate took third place with 1,922 votes, followed by Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and Restore. Turnout was 38.76%, lower than the 2024 general election target (54.1%).
40-45%Russian Media97%match98¢+2%
Somali-born Labour Party representative Sagal Abdi-Wali won a by-election in the British constituency of Holborn and St Pancras. In the House of Commons, she will replace former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, BBC News reports. Abdi-Wali received 12,292 votes (45%), ahead of Green Party leader Zack Polansky, who received 8,928 votes (33%). The Conservative candidate took third place with 1,922 votes, followed by Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and Restore. Turnout was 38.76%, lower than the 2024 general election target (54.1%). RBK Channel on "Max"
<30%ft.com93%match100¢
Left-of-Labour vote stagnates in Holborn
40-45%theguardian.com94%match96¢+4%
Live: Here is an extract from Prof Sir John Curtice ’s assessment of the Holborn and St Pancrase byelection in an article for the Times . With 45 per cent of the vote
<30%news.sky.com94%match97¢+3%
[UPDATE] Live: Labour might have lost ground - but Holborn win is still a strong performance (first reported at 2026-10-09T04:20:00Z)

What is this event about?

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).

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