HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Resolved12as of
This hub tracks 12 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Fundraising in the #HI01 Democratic primary from Jul. 1 to Jul. 19, per FEC filings: • • Ed Case (inc.) • Raised - $55,000 • Spent - $229,000 • Cash-on-hand - $600,000 • • Jarrett Keohokalole • Raised - $126,000 • Spent - $223,000 • Cash-on-hand - $81,000 • • Primary is Aug. 8
Fundraising in the #HI01 Democratic primary from Jul. 1 to Jul. 19, per FEC filings: • • Ed Case (inc.) • Raised - $55,000 • Spent - $229,000 • Cash-on-hand - $600,000 • • Jarrett Keohokalole • Raised - $126,000 • Spent - $223,000 • Cash-on-hand - $81,000 • • Primary is Aug. 8
Another new Keohokalole ad in #HI01 goes negative against Case: "Ed Case says he's fighting for us, but how could he be when most of his campaign is funded by corporate PACs and out of state donors?" • • "Case says he delivers 'real results,' but real results for who?"
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.