GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
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Market pricing makes Iowa the favorite at 59% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
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What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas It’s been 94 years since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. “It’s all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that after 96…
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.