Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 28% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
We published this evening: Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that "Israel does not accept the 15-point agreement of the "Peace Council" in Gaza, tonight we are publishing that the defense establishment has not yet received an order to freeze the next phase in the Strip - and even the opposite: In about two and a half weeks, on August 30, a source at the American headquarters in Kiryat Gat tells us, work is scheduled to begin on establishing the first base of the multinational force in Rafah. Preliminary assessments are underway for the transition to the next phase. In the cabinet discussion held on Thursday, the IDF presented the defense establishment's demands to the political echelon as we published last week: freedom of action to eliminate terrorists who pose a threat, withdrawal only after the Strip is demilitarized, and a demand that the control mechanism for Hamas's weapons delivery be external and not subject to the technocratic government. Pressure and opposition from cabinet ministers led to the prime minister's announcement. Despite this, Israel has begun to de facto implement the agreement. Last week, the level of approval for attacks on Gaza was raised from the command level to approval by the Chief of Staff - attacks on Gaza have almost ceased - in accordance with the directives of the political echelon.
The US representative to the Security Council: We will continue to support the establishment of an international stabilization force in Gaza in order to allow the National Committee for the Administration of the Sector to provide stability.
Israel has ordered 37 aid groups to halt operations in war-torn Gaza, as well as occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.