Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place

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This hub tracks 18 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Jay Collinsapnews.com94%match100¢
Live: Florida’s Lt. Gov. Jay Collins loses bid to be Republican’s nominee for governor
Byron Donaldsnytimes.com97%match100¢
Live: Byron Donalds, now the Republican nominee for Florida governor, dominated in most of the state but is trailing to Jay Collins in a number of largely white, rural counties in North Florida. Mr. Donalds is Black, and some Republicans will be looking at his underperformance in those counties with concerns about whether white Republicans are unwilling to vote for a Black nominee and might stay home in November. If elected, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 675,076 (49.1%) • Jay Collins (R): 339,870 (24.7%) • James Fishback (R): 137,965 (10.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jay Collinsnytimes.com95%match99¢+1%
Live: While Byron Donalds has a large lead statewide in the Republican primary for governor in Florida, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is currently leading in several rural, historically Republican counties in the northern part of the state which tend to have significantly lower percentages of residents with a college degree than the state as a whole.
Byron Donaldsnytimes.com94%match100¢
Live: While Byron Donalds has a large lead statewide in the Republican primary for governor in Florida, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is currently leading in several rural, historically Republican counties in the northern part of the state which tend to have significantly lower percentages of residents with a college degree than the state as a whole.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 64% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 534,160 (50.1%) • Jay Collins (R): 263,158 (24.7%) • James Fishback (R): 96,781 (9.1%) • Paul Renner (R): 89,864 (8.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 53% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 452,930 (50.7%) • Jay Collins (R): 221,068 (24.7%) • Paul Renner (R): 75,993 (8.5%) • James Fishback (R): 73,862 (8.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 44% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 377,752 (51.5%) • Jay Collins (R): 182,887 (24.9%) • Paul Renner (R): 61,485 (8.4%) • James Fishback (R): 54,063 (7.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 13% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 109,394 (49.6%) • Jay Collins (R): 59,967 (27.2%) • Paul Renner (R): 18,436 (8.4%) • James Fishback (R): 15,477 (7.0%) • Bobby Williams (R): 7,519 (3.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Another busy primary day on Tuesday! The top race is arguably the #FLGov GOP primary, where Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the frontrunner. But insurgent James Fishback might — MIGHT — not be far behind. • • Donalds leads 37%-18% in DDHQ's average, but polls disagree sharply.
Another busy primary day on Tuesday! The top race is arguably the #FLGov GOP primary, where Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the frontrunner. But insurgent James Fishback might — MIGHT — not be far behind. • • Donalds leads 37%-18% in DDHQ's average, but polls disagree sharply.
Highly Respected Congressman Byron Donalds is running for Governor of Florida, a State that I love, and WON BIG, in 2016, 2020, and 2024. I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER! Byron has a great wife, Erika, and three beautiful sons. They are very proud of him! As Governor, Byron will have a BIG Voice, and work closely with me to advance our America First Agenda. He will fight tirelessly to help Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military, Protect our Veterans, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement! Early Voting is underway NOW, and Election Day is August 18th. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR BYRON — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! Find your Voting Location here:
Jay CollinsScripps Reporter98%match49¢+104%
So - the @JayCollinsFL campaign for governor out with new polling: • • Byron Donalds: 46% • Jay Collins: 30% • James Fishback: 9.8% • Paul Renner: 5.9% • • “Notably, undecided voters break for Collins more than any other candidate, with Collins taking 40% of that pool,” said campaign manager @TedVeerman. • • Camp says the poll of 988 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted July 28-29 via a text-to-web interface by David Jay Wolfson.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the individual who places second in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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