FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

ResolvedOutcomes21as of

This hub tracks 21 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Dan Green100%
Jorge Malavet0%
Candidate F0%
Candidate J0%
Candidate O0%
Marcus Carter0%
Justin Story0%
Steve Rance0%
Candidate H0%
Candidate N0%
Thomas Chalifoux0%
Ben Butler0%
Candidate E0%
Candidate I0%
Candidate L0%
Other0%
Howard Steven Rance0%
Jorge Martinez0%
Candidate G0%
Candidate K0%
Candidate M0%

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Dan GreenDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match98¢+2%
Decision Desk HQ projects Dan Green wins the Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • #DecisionMade: 8:26 PM EDT
Dan GreenDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match93¢+8%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 94% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 14,354 (25.6%) • Ben Butler (R): 13,394 (23.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 11,481 (20.5%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 11,023 (19.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Thomas ChalifouxDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match98¢+2%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 94% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 14,354 (25.6%) • Ben Butler (R): 13,394 (23.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 11,481 (20.5%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 11,023 (19.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jorge MartinezDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match100¢
DDHQ Race Update (est. 94% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 14,354 (25.6%) • Ben Butler (R): 13,394 (23.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 11,481 (20.5%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 11,023 (19.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Dan GreenDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match65¢+54%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 8,427 (25.4%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 7,910 (23.8%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 6,753 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 6,444 (19.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Thomas ChalifouxDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match86¢+16%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 8,427 (25.4%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 7,910 (23.8%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 6,753 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 6,444 (19.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Ben ButlerDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match79¢+27%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 8,427 (25.4%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 7,910 (23.8%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 6,753 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 6,444 (19.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jorge MartinezDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match94¢+6%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 8,427 (25.4%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 7,910 (23.8%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 6,753 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 6,444 (19.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
Dan GreenDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match34¢+194%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 6,148 (27.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 5,306 (24.0%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 4,469 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 3,880 (17.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Ben ButlerDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match89¢+12%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 6,148 (27.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 5,306 (24.0%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 4,469 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 3,880 (17.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Jorge MartinezDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match93¢+8%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 37% in): Florida US House 9 Republican Primary • • Dan Green (R): 6,148 (27.9%) • Thomas Chalifoux (R): 5,306 (24.0%) • Jorge Martinez (R): 4,469 (20.3%) • Ben Butler (R): 3,880 (17.6%) • • Follow more results here: •

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related events