Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?
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Market pricing makes Between Nov. 3 and Jan. 3 12PM the favorite at 24% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
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“Never,” Mr. Fetterman told @hillhulse in an interview, declaring that he has no intention of switching parties • • “I’m not being cute. I vote 90-something percent with Democrats.” • •
Amid Talk of a Party Switch, Fetterman Vows ‘Never’
Fetterman is beefing with Bernie, he says he should “take responsibility and apologize. After you just blasted the Maine race apart, you are in Michigan replicating it.” • • He says of Abdul El-Sayed: “puts that seat in play while warming Hamas’ hearts.” • • There's a Manchin/Murkowski like fervor about whether Fetterman might leave Schumer's Caucus. Dems and Rs alike say it's not going to happen • • Sheehy: “The prospects of him becoming a Republican are near zero. I think the prospects of him becoming an independent are probably better. But you know what? I think the best thing he can do for the country is stay a Democrat and try to remind a large portion of the Democratic Party that what he’s standing for most of the time are not partisan issues,” • • Lujan: “Senator Fetterman’s a Democrat. He’s not leaving the party. Listen to his words. He’s been abundantly clear ... I have no concern that Senator Fetterman would leave the Democratic Party.”
Fetterman says he hasn't talked to Thune about a party switch. Asked if ditching Dems means becoming an independent or a Republican, he said: "We’re not there." Have Ds already crossed his line? He laments "the very anti-Israel party that we’re becoming."
NEW: John Fetterman is beginning to wonder if Democrats still want him • • "So, if the Democratic caucus doesn’t want me, they could just let me know," he tells me. • • His issues go beyond Israel. • • & how Rs are courting him. • • w/ @frankthorp @ryanobles @news_jul
As Republicans invite him to defect, Fetterman wonders if Democrats still want him in the party
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.