Fed rate hike in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Fed rate hike in 2026? the favorite at 66%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
GOLDMAN: SEPTEMBER FED HIKE UNLIKELY • • Goldman Sachs says a September Fed hike is very unlikely, citing weaker jobs, inflation and consumer data. • • But prediction markets still expect tightening eventually. • • Kalshi prices a 49% chance of a hike before 2027, 70% before July 2027, and 74% before 2028. • • September looks unlikely, but markets aren’t calling the hiking cycle over. •
Wells Fargo said it expects Kevin Warsh and the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% in 2026
Bank of America economists reiterated their forecast that the Fed will raise rates • • 3 TIMES in 2026
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
July 2026 Fed Rate Decision: Kevin Warsh Expected to Hold as Hike Odds Remain at 38%. • The July 2026 Federal Reserve decision has created a striking divide between economic forecasts and financial-market pricing. Al
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
Indonesia C.Bank Gov: US Fed is Expected to Hike Rates Earlier, in Q4 2026
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
There is now a 63% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES at some point in 2026 according to Polymarket traders
Fed Rate Hike 2026: Waller’s Hawkish Signals and the Impact on Crypto Markets. • You might be obsessing over the latest layer-2 upgrade, tracking decentralized exchange volumes, or hunting for the next breakou
FED HIKE ODDS RISE TO 35% • • Kalshi markets now price a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike before 2027, after weeks of mostly subdued expectations. • • The move follows hotter inflation data and renewed uncertainty over how long rates stay “higher for longer.” •
US INTEREST RATE FUTURES MODESTLY PARE ODDS OF FED RATE HIKE BY 2026 ...
US interest rate futures modestly pare odds of Fed rate hike by 2026
US Interest Rate Futures Modestly Pare Odds of Fed Rate Hike by 2026
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.