Fed rate hike in 2026?

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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

YESdbws.io92%match
Markets PM: Fed Issues First Rate Hike Since 2023 -- WSJ Newsletter
YESmoney.udn.com92%match100¢
The Federal Reserve is cracking down on inflation, and the market expects interest rate hikes to continue until the middle of next year.
YEScnbc.com92%match100¢
Fed hikes interest rates for the first time since 2023
YEScbsnews.com92%match96¢+4%
[UPDATE] Fed rate hike is expected today. See what it means for your money. (first reported at 2026-09-15T18:31:56.551995200Z)
YESwublockchain94%match94¢+6%
Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said central-bank watchers now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week and then hike again before the end of 2026.
YESReuters96%match89¢+12%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate at Least Twice by End-March 2027, Said 37 of 70 Economists (vs 21 of 82 Economists in Sept 9 Poll)
YESkucoin.com97%match89¢+12%
September 2026 FOMC Decision: Will the Fed Hike Rates or Hold?. • Introduction Markets are pricing a high chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this week — and that pricing itself is
YESReuters95%match87¢+15%
Deutsche Bank Expects US Fed to Deliver a 25 Bp Rate Hike in March 2027, Adding to Its Forecast for Rate Hikes in September and December 2026
YESstockmktnewz96%match89¢+12%
JPMorgan now thinks we get 2 rate hikes from the Fed in 2026
YESFox Business Reporter93%match89¢+12%
The markets think there is about an 86% chance of a rate hike announced next week by the Federal Reserve. #FederalReserve • Should a hike happen how long before we see a POTUS post on social media bout it?
NOdbws.io95%match29¢-100%
POLL-Fed to hold rates steady in rest of 2026; rising number of analysts see at least one hike
YESthestreet.com97%match71¢+41%
UBS doubles down on Fed rate-hike forecast for 2026. • UBS now expects two Fed rate hikes in 2026 as Kevin Warsh takes a hawkish stance and strong jobs data strengthen case for tighter monetary policy.
YESdbws.io93%match71¢+41%
UBS forecasts two US rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report
NOWalter Bloomberg91%match53¢-100%
GOLDMAN: SEPTEMBER FED HIKE UNLIKELY • • Goldman Sachs says a September Fed hike is very unlikely, citing weaker jobs, inflation and consumer data. • • But prediction markets still expect tightening eventually. • • Kalshi prices a 49% chance of a hike before 2027, 70% before July 2027, and 74% before 2028. • • September looks unlikely, but markets aren’t calling the hiking cycle over. •
YESstockmktnewz93%match47¢+113%
Wells Fargo said it expects Kevin Warsh and the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% in 2026
YESstockmktnewz93%match55¢+82%
Bank of America economists reiterated their forecast that the Fed will raise rates • • 3 TIMES in 2026
NOstockmktnewz93%match46¢-100%
There is now a 55% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed raise rates at some point in 2026 • • Earlier this month, the odds were over 75%
NOzerohedge95%match41¢-100%
*TRADERS PARE BETS ON FED RATE INCREASE DURING 2026
NOkucoin.com98%match32¢-100%
July 2026 Fed Rate Decision: Kevin Warsh Expected to Hold as Hike Odds Remain at 38%. • The July 2026 Federal Reserve decision has created a striking divide between economic forecasts and financial-market pricing. Al
YESReuters96%match65¢+54%
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
YESdecrypt.co93%match72¢+39%
Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike
YESzerohedge96%match71¢+41%
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
YESReuters92%match60¢+67%
Indonesia C.Bank Gov: US Fed is Expected to Hike Rates Earlier, in Q4 2026
YESfaststocknewss97%match64¢+56%
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
YESstockmktnewz96%match64¢+56%
There is now a 63% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES at some point in 2026 according to Polymarket traders
YESkucoin.com92%match53¢+89%
Fed Rate Hike 2026: Waller’s Hawkish Signals and the Impact on Crypto Markets. • You might be obsessing over the latest layer-2 upgrade, tracking decentralized exchange volumes, or hunting for the next breakou
YESWalter Bloomberg98%match31¢+223%
FED HIKE ODDS RISE TO 35% • • Kalshi markets now price a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike before 2027, after weeks of mostly subdued expectations. • • The move follows hotter inflation data and renewed uncertainty over how long rates stay “higher for longer.” •
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
US INTEREST RATE FUTURES MODESTLY PARE ODDS OF FED RATE HIKE BY 2026 ...
NOfinancialjuice99%match81¢-100%
US interest rate futures modestly pare odds of Fed rate hike by 2026
NOReuters99%match81¢-100%
US Interest Rate Futures Modestly Pare Odds of Fed Rate Hike by 2026

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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