Fed rate hike in 2026?
Open$8.1Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 66% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES66¢
NO35¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
*TRADERS PARE BETS ON FED RATE INCREASE DURING 2026
YESReuters96%match65¢+2%
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
Where does the news lean?
10YES7NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.