Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? the favorite at 8%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
MARKETS SLASH FED CUT ODDS TO COIN FLIP BEFORE 2027 • • Kalshi pricing now shows only a ~50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027, down sharply from 80–90% earlier this year. • • As the FOMC meets, markets are effectively pricing a “higher-for-longer” regime, suggesting little confidence in near-term easing. •
RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE FIRST FED CUT PUSHED OUT TO APRIL 2027
TRADERS PUSH OUT BETS ON FED RATE CUT TO APRIL 2027, RATE-FUTURES PRICING SHOWS
Traders push out bets on Fed rate cut to April 2027, according to Rate-Future pricing.
Traders Push Out Bets on Fed Rate Cut to April 2027, Rate-Futures Pricing Shows
Fed dot plot: no changes from Dec: FOMC expects 1 rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027
US rate futures expect Fed to resume rate cut either in December or January 2027 - Data.
US Rate Futures Expect Fed to Resume Rate Cut Either in December or January 2027 -LSEG Data
FED'S COLLINS SAYS SUPPORTED FED RATE CUT BUT IT WAS 'CLOSE CALL'
Why The Fed Will Cut (Much) More Than Expected In 2026
Fed's Goolsbee: Waiting until Q1 for rate cuts would allow Fed to be assured inflation is coming down.
GOOLSBEE: WAITING UNTIL Q1 FOR RATE CUTS WOULD ALLOW FED TO BE ASSURED INFLATION IS COMING DOWN
Fed's Goolsbee: Little to suggest labour market decaying so fast that the Fed could not have waited until early 2026 to cut rates again.
Fed's goolsbee dissented over the rate cut because he believed the Fed should wait for more information, particularly about inflation.
Former Fed Economist Warns More Rate Cuts Might Signal Trouble, Says This Could Be Powell's 'Last Cut'
MARKETS FEAR THE GUIDANCE, NOT THE RATE CUT Kalshi odds show a 97% chance of a 25 bps cut today, but the real risk is the Fed’s 2026 outlook. September projections signaled only one cut next year and a 3.4% year-end rate. Analysts expect guidance to turn neutral to hawkish as…
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.