ECB rate cut in 2026?
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Market pricing makes ECB rate cut in 2026? the favorite at 4%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
YESExpectativa do mercado é de que a inflação brasileira encerre o ano em 4,92%; PIB e Selic apresentaram queda nas projeções, indo para 1,88% e 13,50%, nesta ordem 94%match5¢-20%
The market raises its inflation forecast for 2026 and anticipates another interest rate cut.
Morgan Stanley Expects ECB To Deliver A 25 BP Interest Rate Hike In December 2026 • - Expects ECB To Deliver A Single 25 BP Interest Rate Cut In December 2027
Morgan Stanley Expects ECB to Deliver a 25 Bp Interest Rate Hike in December 2026
Traders Now Fully Price In Four 25bp ECB Rate Hikes By End-2027
Cailian Press, September 14th - Traders have fully priced in four interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank by the end of 2027.
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE FOUR QUARTER-POINT ECB HIKES BY END OF 2027
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects ECB to Deliver One Further 25bps Rate Hike in December 2026 Before Pausing
Citigroup Expects ECB to Deliver 25-Bp Rate Hikes Each in December 2026 and March 2027
An ECB rate hike is ‘all but certain’ — but investors divided on what comes next
An ECB rate hike is ‘all but certain’ — but investors divided on what comes next
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 58 of 64 Economists (vs 55 of 69 in August Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate One More Time in 2026, Said 52 of 74 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate at Least Twice in 2026, Said 37 of 70 Economists (vs 34 of 85 in April Poll)
ECB in no hurry to change rates, comfortable with market bets, accounts show
ECB is not in any hurry to change policy, accounts show
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.