ECB rate cut in 2026?
Open$32Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters97%match91¢+2%
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
NOReuters97%match87¢+7%
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate One More Time in 2026, Said 52 of 74 Economists
NOReuters99%match87¢+7%
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate at Least Twice in 2026, Said 37 of 70 Economists (vs 34 of 85 in April Poll)
NOReuters Business99%match58¢+60%
ECB in no hurry to change rates, comfortable with market bets, accounts show
NOReuters Business99%match58¢+60%
ECB is not in any hurry to change policy, accounts show
Where does the news lean?
0YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.