CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

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This hub tracks 21 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Luke BroninPuck Reporter97%match99¢+1%
The expectation was for Luke Bronin, 47, to beat almost three decade Rep. John Larson, 78, handily. But a 20 point lead with almost 90% of the vote in is quite the call for generational change
John LarsonPuck Reporter97%match100¢
The expectation was for Luke Bronin, 47, to beat almost three decade Rep. John Larson, 78, handily. But a 20 point lead with almost 90% of the vote in is quite the call for generational change
John Larsonpolitico.com94%match100¢
Live: Rep. John Larson’s fate a warning to other longtime New England Dems
Luke Broninapnews.com96%match99¢+1%
Live: After ousting Larson, Luke Bronin says Democratic Party needs to embrace change
John Larsoncbsnews.com97%match100¢
14-term Rep. John Larson ousted by challenger in Connecticut Democratic primary
Luke BroninCNN Reporter98%match99¢+1%
Luke Bronin, speaking after defeating Rep. John Larson: "I hope that this campaign helps to send a message that if leaders in our party don’t recognize that we need to make changes, then the changes are going to come from the ground up." #CT01
John LarsonCNN Reporter97%match100¢
Luke Bronin, speaking after defeating Rep. John Larson: "I hope that this campaign helps to send a message that if leaders in our party don’t recognize that we need to make changes, then the changes are going to come from the ground up." #CT01
Luke Bronintheguardian.com98%match99¢+1%
Live: Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford, ousted incumbent congressman John Larson in Connecticut’s first congressional district , the AP projects. Bronin, 47,
Live: Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford, ousted incumbent congressman John Larson in Connecticut’s first congressional district , the AP projects. Bronin, 47,
John Larsonaxios97%match100¢
Rep. John Larson ouster makes 2026 a record year for Democratic primary losses
John Larsonnytimes.com97%match100¢
Rep. John Larson, a Longtime Lawmaker, Loses a Primary in Connecticut
Luke Broninnytimes.com97%match99¢+1%
Live: Representative John Larson, Democrat of Connecticut, 78, becomes the latest incumbent to lose a primary. He was defeated by Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford.
John Larsonnytimes.com98%match100¢
Live: Representative John Larson, Democrat of Connecticut, 78, becomes the latest incumbent to lose a primary. He was defeated by Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford.
John Larsonnytimes.com97%match100¢
Live: Rep. John Larson, a Longtime Lawmaker, Loses a Primary in Connecticut
Luke BroninAxios Reporter97%match99¢+1%
NEW: Luke Bronin unseats Rep. John Larson • • Larson is the 7th House Democrat to lose their primary this year — tied w/ 2012 for the most Democratic primary losses in the 21st century. • • More here:
NEW: Luke Bronin unseats Rep. John Larson • • Larson is the 7th House Democrat to lose their primary this year — tied w/ 2012 for the most Democratic primary losses in the 21st century. • • More here:
Luke Broninaxios97%match99¢+1%
BREAKING: Rep. John Larson was unseated by his primary challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in Connecticut, according to AP
John Larsonaxios98%match100¢
BREAKING: Rep. John Larson was unseated by his primary challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in Connecticut, according to AP
John LarsonSSN Reporter95%match100¢
Wow - John Larson loses his primary
Luke BroninCNN Reporter98%match99¢+1%
Luke Bronin will defeat Rep. John Larson in the #CT01 Democratic primary, CNN projects
John LarsonCNN Reporter98%match100¢
Luke Bronin will defeat Rep. John Larson in the #CT01 Democratic primary, CNN projects
John Larsonnotus.org97%match100¢
Longtime Rep. John Larson Loses Reelection Bid in Connecticut
Luke Broninapnews.com98%match98¢+2%
Live: Luke Bronin defeats incumbent US Rep. John Larson in Connecticut Democratic primary
John Larsonapnews.com98%match100¢
Live: Luke Bronin defeats incumbent US Rep. John Larson in Connecticut Democratic primary
John Larson, who’s been in office for 27 years, loses his primary to Luke Bronin in #CT01. • • Another sign of Dem electorate yearning for generational change
John Larson, who’s been in office for 27 years, loses his primary to Luke Bronin in #CT01. • • Another sign of Dem electorate yearning for generational change
John Larsonaxios.com95%match100¢
Rep. John Larson becomes 7th House Democrat to lose primary this year
Luke Broninms.now98%match98¢+2%
Live: Luke Bronin projected to win Democratic nod in Connecticut’s 1st House District
John Larsonpolitico.com97%match98¢+2%
Live: Rep. John Larson ousted in Connecticut
Luke BroninAPws98%match99¢+1%
WASHINGTON (AP) — Luke Bronin wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Connecticut's 1st Congressional District

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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