CT-01 Democratic Primary WinnerJohn Larson
ResolvedOutcome: No$34Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The expectation was for Luke Bronin, 47, to beat almost three decade Rep. John Larson, 78, handily. But a 20 point lead with almost 90% of the vote in is quite the call for generational change
Live: Rep. John Larson’s fate a warning to other longtime New England Dems
14-term Rep. John Larson ousted by challenger in Connecticut Democratic primary
Luke Bronin, speaking after defeating Rep. John Larson: "I hope that this campaign helps to send a message that if leaders in our party don’t recognize that we need to make changes, then the changes are going to come from the ground up." #CT01
Live: Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford, ousted incumbent congressman John Larson in Connecticut’s first congressional district , the AP projects. Bronin, 47,
Rep. John Larson ouster makes 2026 a record year for Democratic primary losses
Rep. John Larson, a Longtime Lawmaker, Loses a Primary in Connecticut
Live: Representative John Larson, Democrat of Connecticut, 78, becomes the latest incumbent to lose a primary. He was defeated by Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford.
Live: Rep. John Larson, a Longtime Lawmaker, Loses a Primary in Connecticut
NEW: Luke Bronin unseats Rep. John Larson • • Larson is the 7th House Democrat to lose their primary this year — tied w/ 2012 for the most Democratic primary losses in the 21st century. • • More here:
BREAKING: Rep. John Larson was unseated by his primary challenger, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in Connecticut, according to AP
Wow - John Larson loses his primary
Luke Bronin will defeat Rep. John Larson in the #CT01 Democratic primary, CNN projects
Longtime Rep. John Larson Loses Reelection Bid in Connecticut
Live: Luke Bronin defeats incumbent US Rep. John Larson in Connecticut Democratic primary
John Larson, who’s been in office for 27 years, loses his primary to Luke Bronin in #CT01. • • Another sign of Dem electorate yearning for generational change
Rep. John Larson becomes 7th House Democrat to lose primary this year
Live: Rep. John Larson ousted in Connecticut
14-term Democratic Rep. John Larson loses his primary to opponent calling for generational change
Democratic Rep. John Larson loses his primary to opponent calling for generational change
#CT01 Democratic primary: With 37% of the vote in, Rep. John Larson is down by 20 points against challenger Luke Bronin
If you're surprised that John Larson is losing #CT01, you should, as the French say, "subscribe to le newsletter."
Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin looking likely to unseat Rep. John Larson, the 7th overall defeat of a House Dem in a primary this year (5th outside of TX redistricting). • • Not the only reason Larson went down but he never recovered from the clip of him freezing on House floor.
New ad from Luke Bronin — primary challenger to Rep. John Larson in #CT01 — via @Ad_Impact: • • "John Larson is a good man, but he's been in Congress since the 90s. The stakes are just too high to keep doing the same thing. That's why I approve this message."
Where does the news lean?
3YES28NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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See all outcomes for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.