China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? the favorite at 7%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
China reduced military flights into a sensitive area near Taiwan last month, an indication Beijing is tweaking its training focus
China has warned the US that moving ahead with new arms sales to Taiwan could derail President Trumps planned April 2026 visit to Beijing-FT
The US is preparing new arms sales to Taiwan, which have unsettled Chinese officials to the point that President Donald Trump’s planned visit to China in April could be in jeopardy, according to the Financial Times
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said the island is determined to defend its sovereignty and boost its defense, after China fired rockets towards the island as part of military drills
TAIWAN PRESIDENT: THE PLA HAS SPECIFICALLY DESIGNATED TAIWAN'S NEWLY ENHANCED COMBAT CAPABILITIES AS A HYPOTHETICAL ADVERSARY FOR TRAINING EXERCISES
Pentagon says Lockheed Martin gets $328.5 million Taiwan military sale contract
What we learned after China encircled Taiwan and carried out large-scale drills this week
TAIWAN DEFENCE MINISTRY: AMONG THEM, 35 PLANES CROSSED TAIWAN STRAIT MEDIAN LINE
China's military holds live drills around Taiwan after Trump arms sale announcement
China launches war games around Taiwan as island vows to defend democracy
BREAKING: Taiwan places forces on high alert amid China military exercises
China said it would hold military maneuvers around Taiwan that would include live-fire drills, a move that comes after the US announced a major weapons package for the self-run democracy.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.