China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
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Market pricing makes China ballistic missile launch by December 31? the favorite at 18%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
[In-depth News] China's ballistic missile launch: "They wanted to show they can attack the US from the South China Sea"... Kenji Yoshinaga
China's "nuclear triad" may be the aim: Analysis of SLBM launches warns "next target is the air."
China's ballistic missile test opens the door to military tensions between East Asian countries. Report by: Saber Ayoub
With a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, China launches an intercontinental ballistic missile, sparking condemnation in the US and Australia. Here's what we know about it in this story:
China's launched ballistic missile may be the nuclear-capable "JL-3"... Chinese media says it "demonstrates high level of nuclear counterattack capability."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.