Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Open40as of
Market pricing makes Candidate A the favorite at 50% across 40 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate H50%
Candidate I50%
Candidate J50%
Candidate K50%
Candidate L50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate Q50%
Augusto Cury40%
Renan Santos23%
Zema5%
Samara1%
Lula0%
All further outcomes (10 more):
Candidate R · Candidate S · Candidate T · Candidate U · Candidate V · Candidate W · Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Brazilians will vote today in the first round of the presidential election between Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro. Polls predict that neither will cross the 50 percent threshold and the decision will go to a decisive second round on October 25. While Lula presents the election as a fight for the future of democracy, Bolsonaro is focusing on the fight against crime and a promise to pardon his father. @RamEliBrandts (Photo: Reuters)
Presidential election in Brazil: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck as the polls close.
Brazilian elections; Close competition between da Silva and Bolsonaro on the eve of the presidential election Nearly 160 million Brazilian voters will go to the polls today, Sunday (October 4th) to participate in the country's presidential election; the main competition is between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the country's current president, and "Flavio Bolsonaro", a right-wing senator and son of Jair Bolsonaro (former Brazilian president), and is expected to go to the second round.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Brazilian elections; Close competition between da Silva and Bolsonaro on the eve of the presidential election Nearly 160 million Brazilian voters will go to the polls today, Sunday (October 4th) to participate in the country's presidential election; the main competition is between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the country's current president, and "Flavio Bolsonaro", a right-wing senator and son of Jair Bolsonaro (former Brazilian president), and is expected to go to the second round.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
On the eve of Brazil's general election, Lula leads in the first round of polls, but the runoff election may be a close contest.
Assaf Rosenzweig
Bloomberg poll for Brazil's presidential election to be held today: President Lula da Silva defeats right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round with only 0.2% - 47.6% compared to 47.4%. The second round will be held on October 25. Photo: AP
Assaf Rosenzweig
Bloomberg poll for Brazil's presidential election to be held today: President Lula da Silva defeats right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round with only 0.2% - 47.6% compared to 47.4%. The second round will be held on October 25. Photo: AP
Lula Seen with 47.6% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 47.4% in Potential Brazil Election Runoff - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
Lula Seen with 47.6% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 47.4% in Potential Brazil Election Runoff - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
Lula Seen with 47.0% of Valid Votes, Flavio Bolsonaro 44.1% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
Lula Seen with 47.0% of Valid Votes, Flavio Bolsonaro 44.1% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Atlasintel/Bloomberg Poll
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).