Bank of Brazil decision in September?
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Market pricing makes 25 bps decrease the favorite at 91% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Brazil Central Bank: Perseverance, Determination, and Serenity in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Will Contribute to the Reanchoring of Expectations
Brazil Central Bank: Perseverance, Determination, and Serenity in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Will Contribute to the Reanchoring of Expectations
Brazil Central Bank: Aims to Keep Monetary Policy at a Contractionary Level to Ensure Inflation Convergence to the Target
Brazil Central Bank: Aims to Keep Monetary Policy at a Contractionary Level to Ensure Inflation Convergence to the Target
Brazil Central Bank: This Requires Monetary Policy to Remain Tight
Brazil Central Bank: This Requires Monetary Policy to Remain Tight
Brazil bank CEOs back further easing after fourth straight rate cut
Brazil bank CEOs back further easing after fourth straight rate cut
Brazil’s Central Bank: is Closely Monitoring a Further Deanchoring of Longer-Term Inflation Expectations
Brazil’s Central Bank: is Closely Monitoring a Further Deanchoring of Longer-Term Inflation Expectations
Brazil’s Central Bank: Current Scenario is Marked by Heightened Uncertainty, Deanchoring of Expectations, and Elevated Risks Surrounding the Reference Scenario
Brazil’s Central Bank: Current Scenario is Marked by Heightened Uncertainty, Deanchoring of Expectations, and Elevated Risks Surrounding the Reference Scenario
TABLE-Brazil economists lower forecast for end-2026 interest rate
TABLE-Brazil economists lower forecast for end-2026 interest rate
Brazil Economists See Year-End 2026 Interest Rate Selic at 14.00% vs 14.00% in Previous Estimate - Cenbank Poll
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.