Bank of Brazil decision in September?

ResolvedOutcomes5as of

This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Brazilian central bank cuts interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, bringing them to 13.75%.
Brazilian central bank cuts interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, bringing them to 13.75%.
Brazilian central bank cuts interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, bringing them to 13.75%.
50+ bps increaseafp.com93%match100¢
Brazil central bank cuts benchmark rate for fifth time in a row
25 bps increaseafp.com93%match100¢
Brazil central bank cuts benchmark rate for fifth time in a row
50+ bps increasedbws.io93%match100¢
Brazil central bank cuts rates for fifth straight meeting
25 bps increasedbws.io93%match100¢
Brazil central bank cuts rates for fifth straight meeting
50+ bps increaseReuters93%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank: Scenario Requires Serenity and Cautiousness in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
50+ bps decreaseReuters93%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank: Scenario Requires Serenity and Cautiousness in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
50+ bps increaseReuters95%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
25 bps increaseReuters96%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
50+ bps decreaseReuters97%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
Central Bank cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the 5th consecutive time, and the Selic rate falls to 13.75%.
Central Bank cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the 5th consecutive time, and the Selic rate falls to 13.75%.
Central Bank cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the 5th consecutive time, and the Selic rate falls to 13.75%.
Central Bank cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the 5th consecutive time, and the Selic rate falls to 13.75%.
25 bps decreaseNews96%match99¢+1%
*BRAZIL CUTS BENCHMARK LENDING RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 13.75%
50+ bps increaseNews94%match100¢
*BRAZIL CUTS BENCHMARK LENDING RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 13.75%
25 bps increaseNews95%match100¢
*BRAZIL CUTS BENCHMARK LENDING RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 13.75%
50+ bps decreaseNews95%match100¢
*BRAZIL CUTS BENCHMARK LENDING RATE 25 BASIS POINTS TO 13.75%
25 bps decreaseReuters98%match99¢+1%
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
50+ bps increaseReuters97%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
25 bps increaseReuters97%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
50+ bps decreaseReuters97%match100¢
Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% (Reuters Poll 13.75%)
25 bps decreaseReuters97%match98¢+2%
Reuters Poll-Brazil Central Bank to Cut Benchmark Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% on September 16, Say 48 of 51 Economists; Three Expect No Change to Rate
No ChangeReuters97%match98¢+2%
Reuters Poll-Brazil Central Bank to Cut Benchmark Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% on September 16, Say 48 of 51 Economists; Three Expect No Change to Rate
50+ bps decreaseReuters97%match100¢
Reuters Poll-Brazil Central Bank to Cut Benchmark Rate by 25 Bps to 13.75% on September 16, Say 48 of 51 Economists; Three Expect No Change to Rate
Market speculation suggests a September rate hike by Walsh, but bond investors remain skeptical.
Market speculation suggests a September rate hike by Walsh, but bond investors remain skeptical.
25 bps decreaseReuters92%match18¢-100%
Brazil Central Bank: Perseverance, Determination, and Serenity in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Will Contribute to the Reanchoring of Expectations

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.