August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
Resolved6as of
This hub tracks 6 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
August 2026, the hottest month ever recorded worldwide
August 2026, the hottest month ever recorded worldwide
August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded globally.
August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded globally
August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide.
August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide
August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide
"These records will continue to be broken": August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.