Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
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Market pricing makes 600B+ the favorite at 95% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Other IPOs are on ice as investors await Anthropic’s mega public debut
Broadcom has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to cover TPU (Thinker Pulled Processing Unit) leasing costs. The loan is structured as convertible bonds, which may later be converted into Anthropic equity. This is a credit line, not an actual disbursement; Anthropic stated in its IPO filing that it does not expect to sell these bonds before the IPO is completed. The $42 billion covers approximately one-third of its five-year, $125.2 billion TPU leasing commitment. The computing power comes from collaborations with Google and Broadcom, with next-generation TPUs available from 2027 onwards. Anthropic expects to become Broadcom's largest computing power customer that year. Broadcom plays a triple role, encompassing chip design, equipment leasing, and financing, unlike Amazon, which primarily provides cloud and distribution channels. The filing reveals conflicts of interest: pricing and hardware decisions could affect computing power acquisition; defaults on payments or performance could accelerate lease obligations and restrict access to this credit line. Two other cases of AI being supported by debt financing occurred during the same period. SoftBank issued approximately $11.1 billion in junk bonds (BB+), with a 5.5-year USD bond yielding 9.25% and a longer maturity yielding 9.75%. The funds will be used for its final $10 billion investment in OpenAI's third round of funding. Nvidia-backed Australian data center Firmus Grid plans to list on the ASX, with a target enterprise value of approximately $30 billion. Analysts estimate that debt accounts for about half of its value. Broadcom's performance remains strong: third-quarter revenue increased by 86% year-over-year, and AI semiconductor revenue increased by 221% year-over-year. The impact of financing on revenue will primarily occur after 2027, rather than in the current quarter's figures. This is not an immediate sign of crisis, as demand is backed by performance; however, the larger the revenue, the more important it is to break down how much of it comes from supplier credit. The terms of leases and loans must also match the actual lifespan of the assets; this is a risk that needs to be addressed later.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus details steep losses, existential risks
Leaked Anthropic IPO Prospectus Shows $42BN Net Loss, $518BN In Unfunded Spending Commitments, And $20BN In Cash
ANTHROPIC'S IPO PROSPECTUS SHOWS 2025 REVENUE UP 12X TO NEARLY $4.6B • • - Revenue: nearly $4.6B, up 12-fold • - Operating loss: $8.06B, from $2.98B in 2024 • - Net loss: about $42B, including a roughly $34B accounting charge tied to financing that could convert to shares • - Compute and infrastructure spending: $7.33B, up threefold, more than half of $12.65B in total operating expenses • - Cash, equivalents, and short-term investments: $20.28B as of December 31 • • The prospectus shows $518B in cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations. Nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from two customers, and Anthropic warned many of its largest clients are not locked into long-term contracts. • • The listing could value the company at more than $2T and is likely to be pushed past the November midterms, per Reuters sources. Anthropic declined to comment.
POLYMARKET ODDS ANTHROPIC LISTS UNDER "ANTH" ARE AT 43% • • "ANT" sits at 14%, the next closest. • • Anthropic is reportedly seeking to raise up to $100B at around a $2T valuation.
POLYMARKET ODDS OF ANTHROPIC'S VALUATION HITTING $2T BY DECEMBER 31 ARE AT 73% • • The contract has fallen from around 84% earlier this month, though it is up 28 points since June, on roughly $5.058M in volume. • • Anthropic is seeking to raise as much as $100B in an IPO that could value it at around $2T, per Reuters.
*ANTHROPIC EXPECTS OVER $100B IN ANNUALIZED REVENUE THIS YR: NYT
IPO: AI company Anthropic apparently postpones its stock market launch
Anthropic Could Aim to Raise $100 Billion in Blockbuster IPO - NYT
Anthropic Could Aim to Raise $100 Billion in Blockbuster I.P.O.
ANTHROPIC'S REVENUE RUN-RATE HAS PASSED $65 BILLION AHEAD OF ITS IPO
*ANTHROPIC REVENUE RUN RATE SURPASSES $65 BILLION AHEAD OF IPO
Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on company making up to $200-billion in revenue in 2028, sources say
RPT-EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
RPT-EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
RPT-EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say
[ ZOOMER ] • • ANTHROPIC DOES NOT PLAN TO RELEASE ITS INTERNAL "MODEL 2" THAT APPEARS TO BE MORE POWERFUL THAN MYTHOS - POLYMARKET.COM SEES THE CHANCE OF ANTHROPIC'S UPCOMING IPO CLOSING AT OVER $1.8T MCAP AT 66%: AXIOS
ANTHROPIC'S EARLY IPO MEETINGS HAVE NOT INCLUDED DISCUSSIONS ABOUT FINANCIALS OR VALUATION
[ ZOOMER ] • • ODDS ANTHROPIC IPOS THIS YEAR AT 77%, WHILST THE ODDS OF IT HITTING $2T THIS YEAR SLIDE TO 35% FOLLOWING RELEASE OF KIMI K3: POLYMARKET
Odds Anthropic IPOs This Year At 77%, Whilst The Odds Of It Hitting $2T This Year Slide To 35% Following Release Of Kimi K3
Source: Polymarket
Anthropic was last valued at $350 Billion • •
BREAKING: Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation has officially hit a record $1 trillion. • • Anthropic's implied valuation is now up +733% since October 2025, per onchain pre-IPO trading data. • • Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure on Jupiter, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation. • • Anthropic has now become the third company to exceed $1 trillion in implied valuation, joining OpenAI and SpaceX. • • The implied market cap of these 3 companies alone is now up to $3.7 TRILLION. • • We are about to witness a historic IPO run.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.