Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%? Odds jumped to 48% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 23.1¢ to 47.6¢ (+24.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match23.1¢
+5m26.8¢
+30m48¢
+1h47.6¢
+24h96.8¢
1h move+24.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 26.8¢ → 47.6¢+20.8 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com97%match
Live: In Missouri’s First Congressional District, Wesley Bell captured 77 percent of the initial vote drop from St. Louis County, which consists entirely of early votes and accounts for just under one-third of the county’s total expected vote.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 99%, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$2K

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Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.