Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%? Odds fell to 26% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%? On , the market’s odds fell from 37.5¢ to 25.5¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match37.5¢
+5m37.5¢
+30m25.5¢
+1h25.5¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Nonytimes.com97%match
Live: In Missouri’s First Congressional District, Wesley Bell captured 77 percent of the initial vote drop from St. Louis County, which consists entirely of early votes and accounts for just under one-third of the county’s total expected vote.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$5K

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Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.