Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Odds jumped to 45% on Aug 11, 2026
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Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 15¢ to 45¢ (+30 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Israel's Foreign Ministry.
How did the odds move?
15¢
21.5¢
33.5¢
45¢
48.5¢
+30 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesIsrael's Foreign Ministry94%match
The Governments of the State of Israel and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela announce that, following the visit of the Israeli humanitarian delegation to Venezuela in the wake of the double earthquake that occurred on June 24, and further to talks held between senior officials from both sides, the two countries have agreed to continue their bilateral technical cooperation stemming from the emergency response and reconstruction efforts following the double earthquake. • • The two countries have also agreed to establish a coordination mechanism that will enable the provision of consular services, as needed, to their citizens residing in the other country. • • The two governments recognize the importance of the relationship between the State of Israel and the Jewish community residing in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which serves as an important bridge of historic friendship between the two countries.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 12% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES12¢
NO89¢
$355K
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Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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