Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? Odds fell to 1% on Aug 31, 2026

OpenMove

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 26.6¢ to 1.2¢ (-25.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News.

How did the odds move?

At match26.6¢
+5m14.9¢
+30m5.4¢
+1h1.2¢
1h move-25.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 15.6¢ → 4.1¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

NoNews98%match
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since November 1982 at the end of the week ending August 28, dropping to 286.6 million barrels, according to the country's Energy Ministry.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES5¢
NO95¢

Vol$45K

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Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.